Crisi demografica

Coming economic and financial collapse. The alarm of those who had foreseen the 2008 crisis

An unprecedented economic and financial collapse is on the way, with at least 10 "mega threats" ready to explode in as many simultaneous crises: this is what Nouriel Roubini, an economist known for his predictions of financial crises like the one in 2008, says.
assessments today we live in a unique context, in which geopolitical risks, economic instability, conflicts and political chaos that are dangerous and difficult to resolve have accumulated.
Over the last year, the professor and founder of Roubini Global Economics has repeatedly alerted politicians and experts to the precarious and unprecedented economic and financial condition, declaring in interviews and in his book released in 2023 entitled "The Great Catastrophe" that " We are facing megathreats unlike anything we have faced before, and they are interconnected.” Since the pandemic shocked the world, the turbulences have multiplied and strengthened each other, including the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and skyrocketing gas prices, the blockages of supply chains, the current Israel-Hamas conflict and the tension in the Red Sea up to the increasingly dangerous China-US rivalry.
According to several experts, including the very economist who predicted the 2008 crisis, there are all the signs for a real economic and financial collapse.
The crisis of some banks specializing in the hi-tech and cryptocurrency sectors, such as SVB, Silvergate and Signature, was a sign of threat that has only apparently vanished.
The trilemma presented by Roubini is simple: you cannot achieve price stability, maintain economic growth and have financial stability at the same time, especially in a context dominated by a mix of threats.
Roubini's message, already in the past branded as an "economic pessimist" and not taken seriously in his prediction of the 2008 crisis, is to prepare.
The era of the great economic catastrophe has begun.
read also Credit Suisse, SVB, Signature Bank: what have we learned? An impossible trilemma to resolve: it's time to prepare for a financial crisis Nouriel Roubini, former senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration, with experience in the International Monetary Fund, warns the world .
His prediction is that the financial system will not be able to cope with the vastness of private and public debt that has already been accumulating, generating a trilemma that will soon trigger another phase of panic.
About a year ago, on Bloomberg Television he stated that: We cannot achieve price stability, maintain economic growth and have financial stability at the same time.
So, ultimately, we will have an economic and financial collapse.
The alert is on the peculiarity of our time.
There are no longer the geopolitical and economic certainties that were previously taken for granted, even in times of crisis.
“From job security to a healthy and sustainable planet in which nearly all infectious diseases have been eradicated, to peace between rival great powers, [these certainties] are disappearing,” the professor writes.
And we must therefore prepare for an almost inevitable collapse.
read also 8 reasons to fear the economic collapse in 2024 Dr.
Doom and the 10 "mega threats".
Inevitable collapse? In 2008 Nouriel Roubini warned of an impending severe US recession.
His prediction started from concern about the real estate crisis of 2006-2007 which actually led to the economic collapse.
The economist was first disbelieved – they said there was a lack of mathematical models to back up his words – then he was nicknamed “Doctor Doom”.
What worries Roubini today is that after 15 years we could once again be on the brink of a much worse global economic and financial crisis.
Today, for example, the ratio between private and public debt and GDP is much higher and in recent years the costs and limits of unconventional monetary, fiscal and credit policies have been exposed according to Roubini.
The fragile global economic framework is inserted in a framework of "10 megathreats" (a term used by the economist) which more than others put the world at risk and are already impacting on the growth and stability prospects of developing powers and countries.
read also Geopolitics scares the world in 2024.
The reasons The fate of all the world's economies is united by this decalogue of risks: enormous debt of the States; public and private financial crises; population aging; cheap money bubble; stagflation; currency collapses; end of globalization; artificial intelligence; wars; climate change.
In short, according to the economist the scenario is much more serious than that of 2008 and the consequences can only be worse.

Author: A.W.M.

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