Crisi demografica

The next economic bomb ready to explode explained in a graph

More than economic in the strict sense, the next bomb ready to explode is demographic.
This topic has begun to be discussed constantly in recent months, because in fact that of an increasing or declining population – depending on where you look in the world – is an enormous challenge for the near future.
The demographic crisis of the West and the surge of young people expected from the so-called global South is destined to shape the world economy in the coming decades.
With consequences that will not be painless, according to the experts' analyses.
A very interesting graph developed by ISPI analysts shows how the global population has changed from 1950 to today and how much it will change by 2100.
The balances/imbalances that will shape the world can create new shocks.
The demographic issue is an economic bomb ready to explode for many reasons.
And the politics of the world's powerful seem not to understand the epochal risks we are running.
The next economic bomb is demographic: the reason in a graph India, China and the USA on the three highest steps of the podium for population: the ranking is not surprising, if we consider that these are the major world powers, also due to demographic force.
However, when looking at the 2023 population numbers there is one fact that needs to be carefully evaluated.
In the USA the population numbers 340 million people, while in China 1 billion and 426 million and in India 1 billion and 429 million.
The world's leading economic power does not compete with the Asian giants (this has always been obvious) and among the two most populous nations, India has now overtaken the dragon.
Precisely this latest survey marks a turning point: the dragon is also in decline and there is another group of developing countries or in any case in the South of the world that are advancing in terms of demographic growth.
Old Europe does not appear among the 10 most populous states in the world, neither in the 2023 nor in the 2100 list.
The demographic revolution is underway, with all the resulting consequences.
Economic above all, but also political and social.
Ispi has developed a very interesting graph/table to frame the epochal change underway.
It traces the trend of population growth in 3 key dates: 1950, 2023 and 2100.
The gaze is therefore on the past, present and future, which appears distant (in about 80 years) but which in reality should be a compass for political decisions starting today.
The title given by Ispi to the graph is itself eloquent: World population, the future belongs to the global South (especially Africa).
In summary, the African continent will play a crucial role as an engine of global population growth.
Nigeria will rank third globally in terms of population, with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt entering the ranking of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 80 years.
Europe will be increasingly engulfed by its demographic winter and the powers USA and China will also go into decline.
Eurostat estimates have warned that the EU could see its population shrink by 6%, or 27.3 million people, by 2100.
The bloc's population will continue to grow, reaching a peak of 453 million people in 2026, before falling to 420 million in 2100.
The population pyramid in 80 years projects a shrinking and aging European society.
The share of children, young people under 20 and those of working age will decrease, while the share of those aged 65 and over will increase.
In 2100, people aged 65 and over will represent 32% of the population, compared to 21% in 2022.
All this will have enormous repercussions on state budgets and, therefore, on the global economic fate.
With an aging population, as explained by economist Nouriel Roubini in his book “The Great Catastrophe”, the demographic is now a “time bomb”.
The near future is bleak according to the expert: “today, with little growth, we face the suffocating burden of [still] unpaid social security and public health bills…now the burden is heavier than ever…
The reference is to "implicit debts", i.e.
those which, according to Roubini, will be necessary to guarantee assistance and pensions to a growing number of elderly people, while however there will be fewer and fewer workers.
Considering, furthermore, that states already have a public debt burden so heavy as to be unsustainable.
If on the one hand there is fear for an aging West that will not grow, on the other there is increasing concern for a dynamic, young, working-age part of the world that will be increasingly numerous.
And it will demand employment, development, opportunities.
Ispi framed the scenario as follows: "This trend reversal will require numerous efforts in the management of resources, in sustainable development and in the elimination of poverty and inequalities, challenges that continue to characterize the future demographic giants of the planet." Probably, in the next 80 years this demographic imbalance will push migration even further.
But if we continue to think only in terms of national security, blocking the flow of people looking for work and building walls and physical and "abstract" barriers of hatred and frustration, the demographic one will truly be an economic and social bomb.
Rather, in view of the change in population growth that is underway and that no one will be able to stop, a reasoned welcome and inclusion policy could restore a healthy balance.
Experts and economic projections say so (as well as being a moral and humanity issue).
The debate is open and heated.

Author: Hermes A.I.

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