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ECB meeting today: focus on Lagarde and rates. Follow the LIVE

ECB meeting today: in the foreground the decision on rates and Lagarde's words in the press conference.
What is the Eurotower about to decide and what indications on cutting the cost of money? The long-awaited meeting in Frankfurt, now underway, is the first of 2024.
With inflation still above the 2% target and growing in December, the central bank's battle is not won and the year promises to be challenging also due to rising geopolitical tensions.
The imminent rate cut priced in by the markets has not been confirmed by ECB officials so far, with hints of a potential intervention in the summer.
Will new details be revealed today? The answers could come in Lagarde's press conference which will begin at 2.45pm, half an hour after the publication of the rate decision.
All updates on the event are available in this article, which now follows market expectations live and will update the release of the data and the words of the governor of this ECB meeting on 25 January.
ECB meeting today: live updates European stock exchanges, euro-dollar exchange rate and bond yields highlighted today, awaiting the ECB decision which may influence the performance of assets and markets.
Live updates: 12.16 European stock markets still negative before ECB rate The main European stock indices are still below parity two hours after the publication of the ECB decision on rates.
In detail, the Ftse Mib is down by 0.87%, the German Dax by 0.34% and the French Cac by 0.40%.
11.24 BTP yield, which direction before the ECB decision? The Italian ten-year BTP yields 3.9% while we await the ECB decision and, above all, Lagarde's tone in the press conference.
Further aggressive words on rates could cause yields to rise.
10:12 Euro dollar waiting for the ECB The EUR/USD pair trades at 1.0893, remaining close to the 1.09 threshold.
The euro is rising against the dollar in anticipation of an ECB still holding high rates and supported by a weaker greenback with the recovery of risk assets.
09:09 Opening of European stock markets, there is anticipation for the ECB The main European markets open in red this morning.
The Milanese Ftse Mib index lost 0.69%, the German Dax 0.21% and the French Cac 0.05%.
All the forecasts for today's ECB meeting, 25 January The ECB meets in the first meeting of 2024 with interest rates at 4.5% and deposit rates at 4.0%.
There are no macroeconomic projections planned at this meeting.
In the meetings of October and December 2023, the central bank decided to leave the cost of money unchanged after record increases starting from July 2022.
What to expect on rates From last autumn to today it seems that the Eurotower's monetary policy is anchored to “higher, longer” rate strategy.
read also ECB meeting calendar 2024: all the dates According to most analysts, the ECB will still keep rates unchanged on Thursday 25 January, waiting for the update of the data on GDP and inflation in the March meeting to possibly try to give indications more precise on a decrease in the cost of financing.
Several members of the ECB's governing council, including President Christine Lagarde, made public comments last week to signal that the first opportunity to decide whether to start reducing borrowing costs would be in the summer.
Caution, especially regarding the trend of consumer prices, is maximum.
“In this context of more upside than downside risks to inflation, any rate cut at this stage makes no sense, at least not in the eyes of the ECB,” ING analysts wrote in anticipation of today's meeting.
read also ECB rate cut? Now the problem is wages (which must not rise) The forecasts on Lagarde's words Everyone is waiting for clearer indications from Lagarde's press conference on when monetary policy will actually change direction and the cost of financing will begin to fall.
Investors still expect an 80% chance of a rate cut in April and estimate a total reduction of 1.3 percentage points by the end of 2024.
According to UniCredit economist Marco Valli, Lagarde “will certainly reiterate that the ECB is not ready to start discussing interest rate cuts." Even for ING strategists, the governor will remain very generic and cautious about her next moves: "Trying to convince the markets that pricing rate cuts is wrong requires providing an indication, which the European Central Bank may have little interest in doing In this sentence.
We are, in fact, in a phase of data dependence.
Expect President Lagarde to reiterate this.
We do not expect this meeting to be a turning point for Eurozone rates or for the euro.” While acknowledging the ongoing progress on falling prices and the first signs of a concrete impact of the rate hike on loans and the economy, Lagarde will most likely opt for a cautious tone on the fight against inflation.
Analysts wonder whether he will confirm that the first rate cuts could be decided in the summer (meetings in June or July).

Author: A.W.M.

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