Giancarlo Giorgetti

Rating agencies, the calendar of next decisions on Italy

In the coming weeks, Italy will be called to judgment by the three main global rating agencies who will express their opinions on the state of the national economy.
The Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti speaking on «Sky 20 anni» did not say he was worried about a possible downgrading of the sovereign rating.
The minister met with the agencies, reassuring them of the country's credibility and solidity.
A constant dialogue on the upcoming budget law but also on previous measures and the tightening of the super bonus.
These are attitudes that show the government's commitment to keeping public finances in order.
"We are a strong economy, the second largest manufacturing economy in Europe but with a large public debt that must be managed in the best possible way without blunders," said Giorgetti.
However, there is anticipation to see the judgment that the three agencies will give on Italy.
Here is the calendar.
The judgment on the sovereign rating between October and November The first agency to express its opinion will be Standard&Poor's on October 20th.
We will see if anything will change compared to the current BBB rating with a stable outlook.
On November 10th it will be Fitch's turn, having given a BBB rating with a stable outlook the last time.
Then on November 17th it will be Moody's turn and this will be the litmus test.
Last May the agency decided not to update its assessment on the state of the Italian economy.
The current assessment classifies Italy at Baa3 with negative prospects.
Moody's in an April report highlighted how Italy is the only country among those covered to risk losing its investment grade rating, which means safe government bonds.
There is great anticipation and trepidation in the markets for this latest judgment.
Should the agency decide to adjust the rating downwards, there is a risk of losing the investment grade rating and there would be an increase in interest rates.
If the other agencies were also to adapt to Moody's opinion, there would also be problems for the securities purchase operations of the European Central Bank which, by statute, cannot purchase bonds classified as "speculative".
The Government's forecast is that nothing sensational will happen in our country in the next judgements.
The undersecretary of the Mef, Federico Freni, speaking at a conference, said that the executive does not expect any movements in the next trials.
“We are confident that nothing worrying will change on Italy's rating,” he said.
«We are confident for the Italian economy, I don't see any particular fears.
The cost of debt is not an Italian problem.
If Athens cries, Sparta does not laugh because the cost of the German debt is 3%, which has not happened since 2008", underlined the undersecretary.
read also BTP, buy or sell today? Expectation for the rating agencies Bond yields rising in Italy The spread between BTPs and Bunds in recent days is around 200 basis points.
The yield on the Italian 10-year bond rose by 3 basis points to 4.88%, which goes against the trend of other European government bonds.
In Germany the bund fell by 4 points to 2.87%.
In France it stood at 3.45% at -2 basis points.
The Spanish one is at 3.99% at -1 basis point while in Greece it is stuck at 4.31% at -3 basis points.

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