Volodymyr Zelensky

Ukraine, prisoners also at the front: Zelensky is now alone losing the war

Ukraine is losing the war, the allies are increasingly distant and 2024 with its European and presidential elections in the United States will complicate things even more, especially if Donald Trump wins overseas.
After twenty-one months for Kiev the scenario seems to be lose-lose.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive was a flop and now it is Russia that attacks in Donbass, reinvigorated by the million ammunition arrived from North Korea while only 300,000 of the same number promised by the EU to Kiev arrived: the war industry of the Old Continent in in recent months it would have churned out enough bullets but several countries would have preferred to sell the ammunition elsewhere.
Volodymyr Zelensky has always reiterated that for him the war can only end with the reconquest of all the occupied territories – including Crimea -, a concept shared by the majority of Ukrainians who do not want to open negotiations with Russia at this time.
The arrival of winter, however, is making things worse for Ukraine, with the government expected to soon approve a law which also provides for those convicted of a crime and graduates to be sent to the front, with exemption for those who have distinguished themselves in their studies up to a level of specialization that should disappear.
This is a further sign of the difficulties in Kiev, with the war between Israel and Hamas which has distracted a public opinion which is now increasingly detached regarding the events concerning Ukraine: with such electoral appointments upon us, even the international chancelleries would have become "tired ” of this conflict as emerged from the prank phone call of the two Russian comedians to our prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
read also Why the truce between Israel and Hamas can lead us to a third world war Ukraine, the war is going badly: what will Zelensky do? Volodymyr Zelensky seems to have only one chance to tilt the tide of this war in his favor: inflict a series of military defeats on Russia in the field so as to cheer up the Western allies and intimidate the Kremlin.
To do this, however, it needs soldiers – hence the need to also enlist prisoners and the best graduates in the country – and above all weapons.
However, after having given Ukraine 40 billion dollars in aid, the United States would now turn off the tap.
The Republicans who control the House in Washington do not want to go out of their way to send more military aid to Ukraine, while the European powers have emptied their arsenals and will hardly be able to fulfill Kiev's requests.
The most likely scenario, however, is that in the coming months we will see a new winter of stalemate, with Russia then ready to press further in the spring to try to make this war its own.
At this point many would like Ukraine to start negotiating a ceasefire also given the openings – all to be evaluated – made by Vladimir Putin; This is also a way to speed up the reconstruction and the dossiers for Kiev's entry into NATO and the EU.
However, Ukraine will not be able to become a member of the Atlantic Alliance or the European Union until the conflict with Russia has definitively ceased, otherwise at the first skirmish the West would be called to intervene and this would mean a world war.
Zelensky faces a Hamlet-like crossroads: lose face at home where he still enjoys good support by agreeing to deal now with Russia, or move forward in this very tough war that he will never be able to win.
In the middle are Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, unwitting pawns in a proxy conflict that now seems to have tired the West.

Author: A.W.M.

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