Oil prices move after US inflation data

Oil prices continue to rise as concerns over possible supply shortages grow, with US supplies steadily shrinking and new geopolitical complications arising following the recent clashes in Ukraine.
Currently, WTI oil is priced at just over $80 per barrel and even from a technical point of view, there still seems to be room for the trend to continue.
What is driving the price of oil higher? According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil markets could be faced with a significant supply deficit, and this hypothesis seems to concern the whole of 2024.
These considerations are on a diametrically opposite level compared to previous forecasts, which indicated a strong possibility of a surplus, which is why the price of oil has continued to fall in recent times.
So why was there this drastic change in expectations? Saudi Arabia and its partners will reportedly extend production curbs until the middle of the year.
There has not yet been a confirmation from OPEC.
Additionally, U.S.
gasoline inventories fell to three-month lows for a sixth straight week, as did crude oil inventories.
A situation further burdened by war contexts: for example this week's Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
These considerations were sufficient to generate an initial appreciation of the price of oil, which also generated a generalized increase in futures on oil and other energy-based raw materials.
Even the US inflation data, reported higher than analysts' expectations, seems to play a favorable role in an increase in oil prices.
The cooling of the global economic system does not seem to have arrived yet.
Brent oil and WTI, a look at the graph Oil prices are increasing compared to the lows of previous months.
Particular attention is observed towards the price of Brent futures; with exceeding $84, the high of the last quarter was reached.
The CME volatility index, the OVX, of the price of oil does not appear to increase, highlighting the linearity in the growth of prices in recent weeks.
The price of natural gas, for example, does not seem to maintain a bullish tone like oil, despite the depreciation of the DXY (dollar index) in the last period, which should have led to a surge in the general price of raw materials.
This gives particular relative strength to the oil trend.
The price of WTI oil has now exceeded $80, heading towards the September 2023 highs, positioned just above $90.
There still seems to be room for growth from a technical point of view, with an RSI oscillator on a daily and weekly timeframe still close to 50 points, in a range of presumable graphic indifference.

Author: Hermes A.I.

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