A Russia-EU war by 2030? Germany's alarm

Russia could attack the European Union by 2030.
No, it is not the script of a war film or the prediction of some fortune teller in sight from the beginning of a new year, but the alarm raised by none other than the minister German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
In the columns of the weekly Welt am Sonntag, Minister Pistorius, one of the social democratic exponents who make up the Scholz government also supported by the Greens and Liberals, wanted to warn his country and its EU allies about a possible war between Russia and the Union European.
“The threats of Russian President Vladimir Putin against the Baltic States, Georgia and Moldova must be taken very seriously – explained Boris Pistorius -.
Europe could face dangers by the end of this decade." In essence, Russia, which has been waging a bloody and expensive war against Ukraine for twenty-two months, may not stop once it has achieved its goals against Kiev and may target other former Soviet states such as Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia.
and Moldova, with the latter two countries likely to join the EU soon.
If this were the case, it would be a real declaration of war by Russia against the member states of the European Union which, according to the Treaties, would be called upon to defend the allies that were attacked.
read also Ukraine in the EU: are you in favor? Take part in the survey A Russia-EU war by 2030? For Boris Pistorius, the danger of an attack on the EU by Russia is so probable that he explained how the EU countries "have about five to eight years to catch up both in terms of the armed forces and in terms of industry And the society".
In fact, it is no mystery that the states of the European Union – after having given Ukraine important military supplies and after having neglected defense spending for years – would not currently be able to sustain a total war against Russia.
As is known, NATO countries have renewed their commitment to bring their military spending to 3% of their GDP; despite good will and a significant increase compared to the past, Italy will miss this objective in 2024 as it does not have enough money in hand.
The fact remains, however, that the scenario evoked by German Minister Pistorius appears unlikely.
In fact, even Russia would have many difficulties facing such a war, given that to conquer 10% of Ukrainian territory so far it would have lost over 300,000 soldiers and burned an enormous amount of resources.
Attacking the European Union would also mean bringing the United States and the United Kingdom, two nuclear powers like France, into the conflict.
In short, for Russia it would not be a walk in the park at all even in the case of support from Iran and North Korea, with only China that could shift the balance on the field.
After 24 February 2022, however, neither in Europe nor in the rest of the world there are certainties: for many, a sort of third world war appears to be inevitable given the no longer recoverable relations between the Western bloc and the Sino-Russian one, with everything appearing to be in the hands of Vladimir Putin who will obtain his fifth presidential mandate in the Russian elections in March.
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Author: Hermes A.I.

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