Lower wages for 14 million Italians from 2025, but Meloni doesn't talk about it

The salaries of 14 million Italians are seriously at risk of being lighter starting from 2015.
An eventuality that at the moment appears to be almost a certainty, in the general silence of the government and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni who are careful not to disturb the waters in sight of the European elections scheduled for 8 and 9 June.
However, we must say things as they are: the cut in the tax wedge which has made the salaries of millions of workers heavier will hardly be extended, given that this would mean an outlay which is currently prohibitive for the shaky state coffers.
According to what we learn, the next budget law should have a total scope of around 22 billion; Meloni would like greater flexibility from Europe to be able to spend 8 billion: however, the negotiation will not be easy.
Last year the measure was extended thanks to the budget gap, but now with the return of the constraints of the Stability Pact – Italy will certainly receive a letter from Brussels at the end of June regarding the opening of an infringement procedure for excessive deficit – the government will have to make the proverbial somersaults to avoid lowering the salaries of millions of employees.
read also Pay slip, the joke is served: after the increases come the cuts Lower salaries from 2025: the reason for the risk In the latest budget law the Meloni government confirmed the cut in the contribution wedge for the share for 2024 too burden of employees: the cut remained at 6% for taxable monthly wages up to 2,692 euros and at 7% for those up to 1,923 euros.
The measure introduced by the Draghi government and then confirmed by the centre-right executive was extended for the whole of 2024, ergo without refinancing it will cease to be in force on 31 December.
Total cost for salaries 10 billion – it was the most expensive measure of the last budget law -, with the State putting part of the pension contributions paid by around 14 million workers out of its own pocket.
Basically, in the last two years, 14 million Italians have had a heavier salary thanks to this exorbitant measure, which however will expire at the end of the year and at the moment there do not seem to be the conditions for it to be extended further or to become structural.
As underlined by Pagella Politica, it must be remembered that in Italy the tax wedge is worth on average 45.9% of the gross salary, compared to an average of 34.6% in OECD countries.
The cut was consequently welcomed by all political forces, however it has a very high cost which Italy will probably no longer be able to afford from 2025 given the imminent infringement procedure and the probable corrective action.
Meloni's silence on salaries In this period Giorgia Meloni will probably have one of Eduardo De Filippo's most famous maxims firmly in mind: “Adda passà 'a nuttata”.
The date to overcome ca va sans dire is that of the European elections, when we will also vote for the first round of the administrative and regional elections in Piedmont.
Until that moment the government – in addition to engaging in the ever-present sport of electoral promises (see the new building amnesty launched by Matteo Salvini) – will try to hide the dust under the proverbial carpet.
Workers' salaries are thus in good company: even the pension reform will continue to be a mirage in 2025, like the tax reform.
These are the workhorses of Meloni and the centre-right in the electoral campaign and now declassified in legislative objectives, therefore to be done by 2027.
In recent days the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, explained that a procedure will be inevitable for Italy of infringement for excessive deficit, with our debt consequently having to fall by at least 0.5% every year.
In 2024 our GDP is growing less than expected by the government, with the same expected to happen in 2025: in the upcoming Def the government should insist on an optimistic 1%, a more than generous estimate.
The risk of a budget hole – Italia Viva speaks of 10 billion – is real and could lead to a corrective maneuver in the summer or early autumn with a draconian cut in public spending.
In the next budget law it will be a challenge to find 10 billion to extend the tax wedge cut again: to save appearances the government will do something regarding salaries, squandering a few billion euros for another temporary measure with a dubious effect .
read also Pensions and taxes, nothing but reforms: Italy towards the debt infringement procedure