Debito societario

Nothing but recession. In the USA the alarm is about debt

The difficulties on the financial markets do not seem to have ended yet, although this week there has been a lot of talk about "Soft Landing" and the possible future moves that Powell, with the Federal Reserve, will implement to combat the much feared inflation.
The recession hypothesis also seems to have been discarded by a large part of public opinion, which was openly supportive of this hypothesis, while leaving room for other types of concerns.
In fact, there is talk of a hypothetical US "debt crisis": federal spending is higher than ever, and between 2019 and 2021 alone it increased by 50% to meet new political needs.
US debt has surpassed the much-discussed $33 trillion.
Faced with a cost of money, identified by the Fed president himself as "higher and for longer", the risk of a crisis has revived, even among large investors.
Ray Dalio himself recently declared that he is not too in favor of exposure to government bonds, preferring "cash", or liquidity.
Recession yes or no? The global economic outlook is increasingly fragmented, while in the United States there is even discussion of a "soft landing".
This might seem like good news, but it actually worsens, in part, the outlook for interest rates and, therefore, also the accounts of the rest of the world.
High rates, a strong dollar and a resilient US economy would have a negative impact on the growth of other countries, as is partly already happening.
According to the IMF, US growth prospects are rosy: growth of 2.1% this year and 1.5% next year.
In parallel, corporate defaults, which according to Moody's, are set to increase due to refinancing risks, with large maturities between 2024 and 2028.
The much discussed High Yield bonds, Americanized as "Fallen Angels," will reach a rate of default of 5%, a risk that could presumably be reflected in the return and therefore in the price of the assets themselves.
In fact, many are still wondering whether the Fed will be able to escape economic deterioration, with all these variables in play.
And it is here that the financial world connects again to introduce the issue of "debt risk," more weighty than ever, especially in the hypothesis of an absence of productivity.
Does it make sense to talk about the US debt crisis? The unusual level of interest rates and the speed with which the central bank reached these levels are undoubtedly weighing down the federal budget.
The Fed's effort to tame inflation apparently seems to be working, and the prospects of the first declines are discounted on the futures market in 2024.
Likewise, the recent change in the variables at play has once again triggered an appreciation of raw materials, considered by many one of the main reasons, together with the expansion of the M2 monetary base of the previous decade, for the sudden increase in the level of inflation, especially in Europe, which from "momentary" has become persistent.
As Powell himself reiterated in the last conference, there is little to take for granted.
An opinion also shared by Yellen, the sustainability of US fiscal policy depends directly on the trend in interest rates.

Author: Hermes A.I.

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