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5 things to know to start your day at the markets

The market day begins with at least 5 important themes to watch.
The focus is on the moves of the central banks, with the week seeing the publication of the Fed and ECB minutes.
There is also interest in China and Japan, with the latter taking center stage at the start of today's session.
The spotlight is also on Argentina which has elected a new president and on the OpenAI events.
In the background remains the maximum alert for the Israel-Hamas war with unpredictable consequences on a global level.
The 5 factors to consider today as the European stock markets open and while waiting for Wall Street.
read also Market mover of the week: Fed and ECB minutes in focus 1.
Japan, record-breaking Nikkei The Japanese Nikkei index briefly reached a 33-year high at the start of the session, but later struggled to maintain its earnings and closed in the red.
The Nikkei is up more than 8% this month and nearly 29% year over year.
The broader Topix index is up 26% year over year, but still trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, compared to the S&P 500's 23 and the Nasdaq's nearly 29.
The Nikkei has been strengthened by a long period of yen weakness, solid corporate earnings and corporate governance reforms supported by the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
OpenAI Chaos Investors are watching to see how the tensions will impact OpenAI.
OpenAI interim CEO Mira Murati may rehire her predecessor Sam Altman and former president Greg Brockman in a role that has yet to be finalized, according to a report on Bloomberg.
Altman was fired on Friday, when directors led by Ilya Sutskever said he “has not been consistently truthful in his communications with the board.” According to rumors, there is now a possibility of a return but only if there are changes in governance, including the removal of existing board members.
The talks are led by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
The company has invested $13 billion in OpenAI.
Dollar falling, what will the Fed do? The dollar slipped against all Group of 10 currencies in the Asian session and the index of emerging market currencies rose to its highest since February.
Traders are currently pricing in a 30% chance of a first Fed rate cut in March, after Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr said policy tightening was nearing an end.
However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said policymakers are not certain that inflation is truly on track to reach their 2% goal.
Futures also price cuts of around 100 basis points for 2024, compared to 77 basis points previously expected.
This new outlook has helped the bond rally, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.45% falling 19 basis points last week and moving away from a high of 5.02% in October.
According to Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., investors should expect continued downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar as the Fed's accommodative strategy remains in place.
read also Global economy, which crisis? 4 points to understand where we have arrived 4.
Milei wins in Argentina.
Is the country heading for default? Argentina has elected the “libertarian” Javier Milei as its new president.
His radical visions for repairing an economy hit by triple-digit inflation, a looming recession and growing poverty could have even more dramatic consequences for the country's future.
Official results show that Milei obtained almost 56% against 44% for his rival, the Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa.
Milei's challenges are enormous.
He will have to deal with empty government and central bank coffers, a delicate $44 billion debt plan with the International Monetary Fund, inflation close to 150% and a series of capital controls.
Milei's campaign centered on a pledge to give a symbolic chainsaw to the state – reducing spending by up to 15% of gross domestic product – and todollarise the economy to eliminate inflation.
The new president, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist,” stirred controversy throughout the campaign, expressing support for ideas such as legalizing the sale of human organs and eliminating all gun laws.
He also called China, Argentina's main trading partner, "murderous" and climate change "a socialist hoax." 5.
China and the yuan The offshore yuan strengthened after the People's Bank of China raised its daily reference rate for the currency to the strongest level since August.
China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Monday.
The People's Bank of China's one-year prime lending rate – the anchor for most loans to households and businesses in China – was at 3.45%.
The five-year benchmark lending rate – the anchor for most mortgages – was 4.2%.
“The yuan has likely passed the turning point against the dollar, in line with most developed markets and Asian countries,” according to Fiona Lim, senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Bhd.
“Despite some downward pressure due to its own economic weakness, the yuan is also highly influenced by cyclical pressure due to its policy divergence from the Fed.”

Author: Hermes A.I.

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