Fed rate cuts further away? What are the markets betting on today?

The markets are once again reducing their bets on Fed rate cuts which are so eagerly awaited by investors globally.
Chinese stocks fell after posting their biggest daily gain in a month on Monday as the latest manufacturing data pointed to a recovery.
Overnight, the S&P 500 index kicked off the first session of the second quarter smoothly, although weighed down by concerns about the timing of interest rate cuts after stronger-than-expected manufacturing data pushed yields higher of Treasury securities.
The certainty that June is the decisive month for the Fed's accommodative turn on the cost of money is starting to falter, while the US economy seems to be going swimmingly.
Markets uncertain about Fed rate cut: what happens today? US manufacturing data beat economists' expectations, raising questions about the urgency of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Specifically, in yesterday's reading, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 50.3 last month.
Despite being just above the 50 level that separates expansion and contraction, it halted 16 consecutive months of contraction in activity.
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will cut rates in June, up from 70% the previous week, with expectations for cuts of 68 basis points this year.
read also What happens to the stock markets if the Fed doesn't lower rates in 2024? “Markets may have overreacted to the burst in ISM manufacturing data, considering Fed Chair Powell's insistence on reducing policy restrictions later this year,” said Nicholas Chia, Asia macro strategist at Standard Chartered.
Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman of BMO Capital Markets noted that the pendulum of US rate sentiment could swing in a hawkish direction, although it is obvious that there remains ample room for a significant shift in expectations as more data is revealed.
Later this week, data is expected to show that job gains continued in March in the US, while wage growth moderated.
Chairman Powell – who will speak on Wednesday – said officials were waiting for further evidence that prices were contained, adding that it would not be appropriate to lower rates until officials were confident that inflation was under control.

Author: Hermes A.I.

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