War

Iran Goes to War? What is happening and what risks are there

Iran Goes to War? This is the question that winds its way through chancelleries all over the world given the latest news which seems to bode well, with the attack on the Kerman cemetery which has thrown the country into a sort of chaos.
On the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general killed at the beginning of 2020 by an American raid, two bombs exploded at the Kerman cemetery where the soldier's commemoration was underway.
The media speak of 103 dead and hundreds injured due to the attack with Tehran which immediately spoke of "terrorism".
“The terrorists behind the explosion in the Kerman cemetery are mercenaries of arrogant powers – declared the head of the Iranian judiciary Gholamhossein Ejei – and they will certainly be punished”.
This is a clear reference to the United States and its allies.
This attack comes at a time when there is talk throughout the world of the danger of an expansion of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, with Iran potentially entering the war like Hezbollah which has been having military skirmishes with Israel for weeks.
the Israeli army along the border.
In recent hours, the new Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz declared that "Israel is in the midst of the third world war against Iran and extremist Islam", with this tragic prospect that would seem to frighten everyone except the Tel Aviv government.
read also Israel ready for the third world war “against Iran and extremist Islam”.
It all depends on Hezbollah.
Iran goes to war? As we understood from the attitude following the Hamas attack on Israel which took place last October 7, Iran does not seem to have a great desire to unleash a war against the Jewish state.
In the Middle East, Iran can count on the iron alliance with Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and various militias in Syria; also considering the strength of its army which, including the reservists, could mobilize up to ten million fighters, Tehran would have the strength to attack Israel.
Despite the massacre of civilians in the Gaza Strip, Iran has so far limited itself to threats only, even after Israel's killing of its own general Razi Moussavi.
The reason for this lack of interventionism is to be found in the fear of being dragged into a war against the United States.
In fact, the USA is well present in the area ready to intervene as soon as the conflict between Israel and Hamas spreads to other actors, with Hezbollah also being held back by fear of American reaction.
Meanwhile, the United States launched its first attack against the Houthis after having once again attacked a commercial ship in the Red Sea, with the Iranians sending off one of their frigates to underline their closeness to the Yemeni rebels.
Returning to the starting question, in light of this complex scenario, how many chances are there that Iran could go to war? It is difficult to make a prediction, but the feeling is that Israel is doing everything to try to drag Tehran into the conflict in the belief that it can get rid of its old enemies once and for all – thanks to American support – in the hope of being able to achieve that goal by doing so.
safety" which has always been desired.
read also Iranian Army, how strong is it? Weapons, aviation and risks of war with Israel

Author: A.W.M.

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