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Economic forecasts 2024, UN raises the alarm on what will happen

The UN has published the new report "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024" which attempts to predict how 2024 will go from an economic point of view at a global level.
And unfortunately the prospects are not very rosy for the United Nations either.
The prospectus predicts a slowdown in global growth which will go from an estimated 2.7% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024.
This is an increasingly lower trend compared to pre-pandemic data which was around 3%.
What will slow down global growth Among the reasons that will slow down economic growth are geopolitical tensions with an exacerbation of conflicts especially in Ukraine and Israel, interest rates which continue to be high, the slowdown in international trade and the increase in climate disasters .
All causes that pose significant challenges to global growth.
Unfortunately, the rise in interest rates which will probably persist through 2024 will slow down economic growth, especially in developed economies such as the United States, where growth will slow down precisely because of high rates.
But tighter financial conditions are also slowing growth in developing economies, particularly in East Asia, West Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean.
The good news is that inflation is expected to decline further during 2024: from an estimated 5.7% in 2023 to 3.9% this year.
However, the report indicates that we still need to pay attention because the pressure on prices remains high and any further escalation of geopolitical conflicts risks renewing inflation.
Since January 2021, consumer prices in developing economies have increased by 21.1% overall, significantly eroding economic gains made following the post-Covid-19 recovery.
Since the post-pandemic recovery, the report highlights how the global labor market has been unevenly distributed.
While countries such as China, Brazil, Turkey and Russia report falling unemployment, globally the gender gap is widening and there is high youth unemployment.
Then there is the problem of climate change.
2023 saw the hottest summer ever since 1880, bringing fires, floods and droughts across the world.
These events have had major economic impacts on agriculture and infrastructure.
Due to climate change, studies have predicted substantial losses to the global economy.
While developed countries have continued to direct investments into sustainable and technological sectors such as renewable energy and digital infrastructure, developing countries are facing challenges such as capital flight and reduced foreign direct investment.
According to the UN, greater international cooperation between the various states is necessary to stimulate growth and promote the green transition.
«Reducing – and possibly eliminating – fossil fuel subsidies, following up on international financial commitments, such as the commitment of 100 billion dollars to support developing countries, and promoting technology transfer are fundamental to strengthening the global climate action,” we read.
In presenting the WESP 2024 report, the UN Secretary General António Guterres, however, tried to instill confidence in the future by hoping that 2024 will be the year in which we can finally emerge from this difficult moment from an economic point of view.
“By unlocking big, bold investments we can advance sustainable development and climate action and put the global economy on a stronger growth path for all,” he said.

Author: A.W.M.

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