Crisi economica

The world economy of 2024 in 10 forecasts (by S&P Global)

What year will 2024 be for the global economy? In 10 themes, S&P Global has listed the most likely forecasts for next year.
Analysts are focused above all on the trend of inflation, finally decreasing, and on its correlation with central bank policies regarding interest rates.
Furthermore, China, the USA and Europe are being watched carefully, among the many uncertainties about their full recovery with which 2023 is closing.
Potential financial shocks, crucial political elections, energy transition are other hot topics for 2024 With this in mind, S&P Global Market experts have highlighted the 10 most anticipated forecasts for the world economy in 2024.
Increasingly moderate inflation The initial strong decline in global consumer price inflation since the end of 2022 has halted in mid-2023, reflecting a rebound in energy prices and persistent underlying inflation, particularly for services.
The downward trend resumed at year-end and is expected to continue through 2024.
Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence expect annual global consumer price inflation to be 4.7% in 2024, down from 5.6 % estimated in 2023 and at a peak of 7.6% in 2022.
Disappointing US and European growth In 2024, weaker annual real GDP growth rates are expected in all regions of major economic importance compared to 2023.
It is estimated that global annual real GDP will grow at a slower pace in 2024 – 2.3% compared to an estimated 2.7% in 2023 – although it will be strong in some regions, with Asia-Pacific helping to avoid a global hard landing .
The USA and Europe, however, will be disappointing, with growth of just above 1% and slightly above 0% respectively.
China in moderate recovery Mainland China's economy will be supported by a more accommodative policy, a gradual improvement in private sector confidence and the expected recovery of the real estate market crisis.
We expect China's real GDP growth to be 4.7% annually in 2024, down from the 5.4% expected in 2023.
Rate Cuts With growing confidence that inflation will return to the target level, changes in rates are expected monetary policy by mid-2024.
Rate cuts will begin once concerns about underlying price pressures have eased.
Quantitative tightening (QT) by the world's major central banks will continue.
Rates in emerging markets Central banks that are already easing monetary policy have generally tightened their monetary policies relatively early, keeping inflation expectations stable and second-round effects under control.
In Latin America, for example, inflation rates have fallen relatively quickly.
The easing cycles already underway in Chile, Brazil and Peru are expected to continue in the coming period, with rate cuts also expected in Mexico in the first half of 2024.
US dollar depreciated The depreciation of the US dollar will be strengthened by a relative slowdown in both real economic growth in the United States and inflation, as well as by the excess current account deficit which, as a percentage of US GDP, is unsustainably high.
The yen is expected to appreciate against the greenback more sharply than many of its peers during 2024, coinciding with the expected divergence in monetary policy.
Financial risks We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates and the rapidly declining effect of Covid-related support measures to weigh more heavily on debt servicing capacity in 2024.
This will likely increase non-performing loans in the most regions.
As a result, banks will likely maintain a more cautious attitude towards lending, requiring higher collateral and limiting credit to borrowers.
Credit growth is expected to be below trend in most countries, dampening growth.
Falling house prices Tight credit conditions and rising financing costs will continue to push down house prices in 2024.
The speed and intensity of the correction between economies will be different, depending on the imbalances accumulated in the the last decade in each real estate market and mortgage rate setting periods.
A flurry of political elections Geopolitical factors will remain a major source of risk and uncertainty regarding our economic forecasts, potentially exacerbated by major elections taking place in an unusually large number of countries.
Election campaigns will set the political agenda of several major emerging economies, including India and Indonesia in the spring and Mexico in mid-year, with European Parliament elections due in June.
Uncertainty over the outcome of the US elections, along with the political implications, will likely be a headwind for the economic outlook.
US energy transition US fiscal policy has once again become somewhat stimulant for the green transition, with incremental funding in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act for green energy projects supporting increased construction of electrical production plants and related structures.
Likewise, the Creation Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Act increases production at U.S.
manufacturing plants.
These policy initiatives are one of several factors hindering a recession in the United States.

Author: Hermes A.I.

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