Markets under pressure. Why is the war scary and the recovery in China not convincing?
Markets still rather fragile today, prompted by a series of events that call for caution.
Asian stocks are closing mostly in the red as better-than-expected Chinese data failed to allay concerns about the country's economic outlook, while escalating tensions in the Middle East kept sentiment in check.
The yuan strengthened, while crude oil, copper and gold extended gains.
China's real estate developer index is headed to its lowest levels since 2009 as stress in the sector continues to rise amid slumping home sales and worsening debt problems for major developers.
Treasuries steadied in Asian trading after two-year yields hit their highest since 2006 in the previous session, while strong US data reinforced the narrative of higher rates for a longer period.
Meanwhile, the scenario of the war in Israel is becoming more complicated and suggests even more dramatic developments.
Israeli and Palestinian authorities have traded blame for the explosion that killed hundreds of people at a Gaza hospital, complicating US President Joe Biden's already tense trip to the region.
All the reasons for tension in the markets today: what happens? The main Asian indices, except the Japanese Nikkei, are preparing to end the session with a loss.
Stocks in Hong Kong erased a brief rally spurred by a slew of economic data, pointing to still fragile sentiment.
China's economic growth and retail sales suggest the economy is finding its footing, while the property market continues to slow.
Chinese onshore benchmarks and US futures remained in the red.
The dragon's macro data are the protagonists today, with positive surprises which however are not convincing enough on the ongoing recovery.
China's economy grew 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, higher than the 4.4% expansion forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
However, this figure was lower than the 6.3% year-over-year expansion seen in the second quarter.
China's retail sales rose in September, while the urban unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in nearly two years.
read also Why could the ghost of Black Monday return to the financial markets? Overall, the Asian powerhouse's economic growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, raising hopes that the world's second-largest economy could reach Beijing's annual target this year.
Shadows remain over the real estate sector in severe crisis.
Developer Country Garden Holdings said it does not expect to be able to meet all of its offshore debt obligations, Reuters reported.
This comes as the grace period for a $15 million bond coupon payment expired on Wednesday, meaning the company is likely to default on its offshore debt.
The news on the war in the Middle East is also making global stock markets gloomy, with the dramatic news of the explosion of a hospital in Gaza which is causing tensions to rise very high.
Israel, held responsible for the attack, accused Hamas of hitting the hospital.
The news has meanwhile contributed to a surge in oil prices as investors now fear that Iran or other nations could be involved.
“We believe the risks are tilted towards an escalation and spread of the Israel-Hamas conflict to other countries in the Middle East,” CBA analysts warned in a note.
“A sharp increase in volatility and a downgrading of global economic growth prospects are possible.” Finally, watch out for the jump in bond yields after an extraordinary report on US retail sales in September prompted analysts to revise economic growth forecasts upwards for both the third and fourth quarters.
This would justify an increase in Fed rates.
read also From BofA and Goldman Sachs, signs that there won't be a recession? Rising yields supported the US dollar, particularly on the low-yielding Japanese yen, where the dollar reached 149.69 to again threaten major resistance at 150.00.
The euro fell slightly to $1.0573, after hitting 1.0595 on Tuesday.
Safe-haven flows lifted gold to $1,949 an ounce, well above its recent low of $1,809.
Finally, tech stocks were partly dragged down by Nvidia's decline following news that the Biden administration plans to halt shipments of more of its advanced AI chips to China.
Markets are now eagerly awaiting earnings from Netflix and Tesla later in the session.