What will Putin do now? The consequences of the ISIS attack in Moscow
In Italy it was just after 6.30pm when a group of 4 people armed with Kalashnikov automatic rifles broke into the Crocus City Hall, a theater and concert hall near Moscow.
They opened fire on the hundreds of people present waiting for the Picnic concert to start.
Hit in cold blood and without reason.
They left dozens of dead and wounded on the field, then – using explosives – they set fire to the structure before fleeing.
The provisional toll is 115 dead but there are still dozens of injured people in critical condition in hospital.
Isis-K, an Afghan branch linked to the Islamic State, claimed responsibility for the attack on its Telegram channel a few hours after the assault.
It is still too early to be certain but almost all intelligence services agree that the authorship of the attack, which occurred in an assault style that is very reminiscent of the attack on the Bataclan in Paris, is reliable.
Moscow said it had arrested 11 people believed to be strongly suspected of being part of the attack.
Now we are wondering what the consequence of this very serious attack on Russia will be and how Putin will be able to react.
Here are the possible consequences.
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A hatred that comes from afar, from the times of the war in Syria where Putin came to the aid of his friend Assad, helping him contain the advance of Islamic fighters.
Isis-K currently represents a cornerstone of the entire Islamic State and can count on 2 thousand people, including several fighters from areas of the former Soviet Union and who therefore still harbor a certain hatred towards Russia.
The attack is a serious damage to the image of Putin who based his presidential election campaign on security, trying to make it clear that he was the only one capable of guaranteeing security in Russia.
After this attack in the heart of Moscow with hundreds of deaths, he certainly comes out battered because he was unable to better manage internal security despite the fact that the US intelligence services had warned Russia of possible terrorist attacks on their territory.
Moscow, however, considered these warnings devoid of specific information and did not take them into account.
After the arrests, in Russia they claim that some of the perpetrators had direct relations with Ukraine, almost as if to suspect that Kiev was behind it.
Putin never sat idle when he was attacked but always responded with violence.
Future scenarios are uncertain, further investigations will be needed to understand the real responsibility.
Kiev's involvement seems to be excluded for the moment and therefore there should be no consequences on the war side in Ukraine.
However, another front could open up in Asia, in those territories where ISIS is still strong.
And then Putin has always exploited attacks to increase internal repression and could do so now too.
The Kremlin could crack down even more on dissent and on Russian society in general, with a sort of martial law enforcement.
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