Pensions and taxes, nothing but reforms: Italy towards debt infringement proceedings

Italy is galloping towards the EU infringement procedure due to its excessively high debt, with the government trying to hide the dust under the proverbial carpet to get through the European elections in June and reserve the "surprise" for the Italians only in the summer.
In the meantime, the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti has announced that the Def – Economic and Financial Document – will not arrive for the first week, but around Via XX Settembre they have made it known that it will be "light, with a dry content, but will contain interesting numbers”.
After all, everything will revolve around the most awaited numbers of the Def, i.e.
the estimates that the government will make regarding the three key words of the document: GDP, deficit and debt.
However, what seems obvious is that Italy will move towards opening an infringement procedure for excessive debt.
In order not to interfere with the electoral campaign for the European elections, Brussels will communicate to Italy and the other badly placed countries the start of the infringement procedure process only after the polls are closed, with a corrective maneuver in the following months which in the current state of affairs it appears to be very probable.
Consequently, all those citizens who were hoping to see the pension and tax reforms implemented in 2025 – loudly promised during the election campaign by Giorgia Meloni and the entire centre-right – will inevitably be disappointed, indeed the most probable scenario is that of a blow in summer or autumn to try to settle the accounts.
read also Is Italy really at risk of a corrective measure? Italy towards debt infringement procedure Last February the European Commission estimated that Italy's GDP will grow by 0.7% in 2024, less than the 0.9% assumed by Brussels in the forecast made in the autumn; our government instead indicated a very optimistic growth of 1.2% in the Nadef.
With numbers like that everything would lead one to think of an infringement procedure for Italy, with even the Mef now having resigned itself to this boulder which will be added to the return of the Stability Pact which, albeit in its reformed version, will make a draconian cut in public spending is necessary.
Despite this scenario of tears and blood – with the infringement procedure the government will hardly be able to avoid a corrective maneuver before the end of the year -, the government seems to want to continue playing the shell game to save appearances in view of the elections European elections which will be held on 8 and 9 June.
According to what we learn, in the Def which will be presented to Parliament next week the government should put on paper an estimated growth for 2024 close to 1%; a more than optimistic figure given that for the European Commission the growth will be 0.7% and for Bankitalia 0.6%.
The real risk is that Italy could soon find itself with a budget hole of at least 10 billion, with the government ready to raise cash by sacrificing part of its family jewels: Post Office and Eni.
If that's not enough then there will be corrective action.
Pensions and taxes: no reforms? Between infringement proceedings for excessive debt, the Stability Pact and a GDP that is not growing according to expectations, the government will hardly be able to avoid a blow for Italians by once again postponing a good part of the promises made during the electoral campaign.
On the occasion of the latest budget law, faced with the failure to include pension or tax reforms worthy of the name, Giorgia Meloni explained that the two topics are legislative objectives, therefore to be achieved by 2027.
While waiting for the Def it seems clear that in the matter of pensions and taxes, even in 2025 the government will struggle to find the money to confirm the existing measures, let alone to implement the reforms promised when the prime minister was in the doldrums of the opposition benches.
What is frightening, however, is not only Italy's accounts, which would already be enough to take away the sleep of Minister Giorgetti who will probably move to Brussels in the role of commissioner after the European elections, but also the delicate international context where more than one European leader has made it clear clearly that we are in a “pre-war” moment.
Between shaky accounts and a war – potentially nuclear – that appears to be upon us, Italy's future appears to be leaden: until the European elections, however, the Belpaese will continue to be portrayed by a compliant government and media as the home of the Mulino Bianco, waiting that the ax from Brussels or worse some Russian missile will awaken us from this sleep into which we have sunk for some time.