Oil prices above $90 per barrel, the Middle East scares the markets
The price of oil is the absolute protagonist of the markets today, with the increase in Brent futures to 91 dollars a barrel.
The rally in crude oil is roiling global markets.
With commodity prices trading near their highest levels since October and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East spurring risk aversion, sentiment among investors has darkened again.
Black gold has risen 18% this year due to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as OPEC+ supply restrictions and firmer demand.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has led to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, driving up shipping costs, but has so far not escalated into a wider war in a region that accounts for about a third of the world's oil supply .
However, the latest events involving Iran have transformed into a more concrete threat than a major war.
And the markets start to get scared again, with the price of oil galloping.
The price of oil is rising.
And the war scares the markets Global benchmark Brent rose above $91, close to its highest since October, while WTI settled around $87 in early morning trade today.
The situation in the Middle East seems to be spiraling into a dangerous escalation.
Israel has stepped up preparations for potential retaliation from Tehran after Monday's attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria, fueling fears of a wider regional conflict.
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That's why ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas – which could lead to the release of hostages held in Gaza – remain stalled.
Israel's economy minister said he did not trust Qatar to act as a mediator with the organization labeled terrorist by the United States and Europe.
“Wider tensions in the Middle East resulting from the Gaza war are likely at their highest levels in months,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore.
“Crude oil reflects the premium linked to the fear of conflagration in the Middle East.” The assessments of ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari on Reuters are of the same tone: “Oil prices appear destined for a further rise in the short term as a more positive economic environment is combined with the continued tightening of supply and the increased geopolitical risks.” Meanwhile, continued Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in Russia may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, a NATO official said Thursday.
OPEC and allies led by Russia this week kept their oil supply policy unchanged and pressured some countries to step up their strategy of production cuts.
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JPMorgan Chase warned that Brent crude has the potential to rise to $100 a barrel this year if Russia's recent decision to cut production is not balanced by other countermeasures.
ANZ Banking Group Ltd., meanwhile, raised its three-month outlook to $95.