Israel-Lebanon Tensions: Potential War Looms, Impacting Italy

The Growing Tension in the Middle East

Since the beginning of the conflict in the Holy Land, one thing has been clear: this time Israel is determined to go all the way, with the goal of ensuring its continued existence without threats to its security.
The war currently underway will not end with the military operation in the Gaza Strip, but rather when Israel no longer has to fear its other major enemies: Hezbollah and Iran.

Western powers seem resigned to the opening of a new front, as an imminent war between Israel and Lebanon – namely Hezbollah – appears increasingly inevitable.
“This weekend,” stated the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, “has been one of the bloodiest since the beginning of the conflict, and the risk of contagion in southern Lebanon is growing every day.”

In recent hours, Canada has advised its citizens to leave Lebanon, while the United States has acknowledged its inability to halt Israel in the event of an attack on Hezbollah.
A war between Israel and Hezbollah seems sadly imminent, with such escalation posing a significant concern for Italy.

The Risk of Regional Conflict

An expansion of the conflict between Israel and Hamas into Lebanon could be the Sarajevo moment of a regional conflict that risks spreading throughout the Middle East.
It’s crucial to note that Hezbollah’s army and arsenal are not comparable to Hamas’: what is truly alarming is the 150,000 missiles, including Fateh-110, reportedly under the Lebanese militants’ control.

For Israel, a conflict with Hezbollah could escalate into a total war, with a serious risk of involving Iran and the United States, two powers long prepared to support their respective allies.
Such a war would pose several risks for Italy, especially considering the 1,300 Italian soldiers engaged in the UNIFIL mission along the border with Israel.

The Impact on Italy

Italy could find itself directly involved in a conflict in Lebanon, not to mention the potentially negative economic repercussions for the country.
According to 2022 data, Italy is Lebanon’s fourth-largest trading partner after China, Turkey, and Greece, with a market share exceeding one billion dollars.
Additionally, a war near the Mediterranean would likely lead to a shock in commodity prices.

It’s a lose-lose scenario for Italy, and once again, Western diplomacy appears incapable of halting this dangerous escalation.