All the government lies about inflation
In recent days, ISTAT has published some rather promising data on the trend of inflation in December, which was immediately relaunched by important members of the government.
Unfortunately, however, the 'inflation' chapter cannot yet be said to be closed.
According to the national statistics institute, in December inflation fell to 0.2% compared to the previous year and 0.6% compared to December 2022.
The Minister of Business and Made in Italy Adolfo Urso promptly praised the drop in inflation with a post on Twitter – making a small and forgivable mistake by citing a figure of 0.5% and not 0.6% – giving the credit to the government's measure called the 'tricolor trolley'.
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It's a shame, however, that it is 'food products and non-alcoholic drinks' that rise by as much as 5.9% between one year and the next! That is, the sector that is still driving the increase in prices is precisely the food sector: nothing more than a tricolor trolley.
So much so that measures with much more recognized effectiveness such as the VAT cut on food products, despite many proposals in this sense, have never been implemented.
The decline is instead due to the collapse in energy and fuel prices, which recorded a decrease of almost 20% compared to last year.
And even in this case the government's action has little effect, in fact one of the first measures was the elimination of the discount on excise duties decided by the Draghi government.
Furthermore, by delving into the numbers communicated by ISTAT, we also realize that there is an arithmetic explanation behind the drop in inflation.
The same had in fact reached its peak between November and December of last year, when it had reached and exceeded 12 percentage points.
Since inflation is a measure that takes into account increases and decreases over a certain period of time, if the starting point is very high the increase will easily be minimal.
In this sense, already with the December data we could easily return above 2%.
But there's more.
The winds of war in the Middle East, and in particular the attacks that the Houthi rebels – in reality rebels only for the West since they control the capital and a large part of Yemeni territory – are carrying out in the Red Sea are causing quite a few problems.
Firstly, to the global logistics that pass through the Red Sea, through Suez and then through the Mediterranean.
And then to the LNG tankers, the gas that we intelligently (euphemism) replaced with Russian gas via pipe, coming from Qatar.
We can therefore only hope that the government has not claimed victory too soon.
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