Russia’s Quest for Oil in Antarctica: What Could Change in OPEC

Russia’s Discovery of Oil and Gas Reserves in Antarctica Raises Concerns

Russia has identified enormous reserves of oil and gas in Antarctica, many of which are located in areas claimed by the United Kingdom.
This was revealed by investigations carried out by Russian ships and reported to the British parliamentary committee Environment Audit Committee (EAC).

The surveys, conducted by the vessel Alexander Karpinsky and operated by the Russian agency Rosgeo, have unveiled oil reserves amounting to 511 billion barrels, approximately ten times the entire production of the North Sea in the last 50 years.
These findings seem to hint at the arrival of drilling platforms to exploit this pristine region for fossil fuels, as warned by some members of the British parliament.

Challenges to the Antarctic Treaty

Antarctica is meant to be protected by the Antarctic Treaty of 1959, which prohibits any mining or oil exploration.
However, the United Kingdom has been accused of overlooking this emerging crisis, despite Russia’s assurances of conducting only scientific research.
Experts in the region disagree, warning that trusting Russia is naive, as demonstrated by the invasion of Ukraine.

Professor Klaus Dodds, a geopolitics expert at Royal Holloway College, stated that Russian activities are much more geared towards oil and gas prospecting rather than genuine scientific research.
The Antarctic Treaty faces renewed challenges not only from Russia but also from an increasingly assertive China.

Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

The Rosgeo has been involved in seismic surveys and other related activities, which could be seen as a prelude to resource extraction.
These issues are likely to be discussed at the annual meeting of Antarctic Treaty signatories in India at the end of the month, where Russia will be challenged on its fossil fuel extraction plans.

The British Antarctic Territory (BAT) is the largest and southernmost of the UK’s 14 overseas territories, with 99% covered by ice.
Past climatic conditions may have allowed for the formation of fossil fuel deposits.
BAT is subject to competing claims from Argentina and Chile, which could escalate if Russian seismic survey evidence is confirmed by subsequent drilling.

Environmental Concerns and International Diplomacy

Experts warn that conflicts in Ukraine and the rivalry between China and the United States pose the greatest threats to the future of Antarctica.
The discovery of vast oil and gas reserves in Antarctica by Russia poses new challenges to the Antarctic Treaty of 1959 and raises significant concerns for the protection of this fragile ecosystem.

In the meantime, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Tuesday that the OPEC+ group of major oil producers has already agreed to take action on oil production if necessary, as reported by the Interfax news agency.

Novak reiterated that OPEC+ has the option to increase oil production, depending on market conditions.
Discussions on extending voluntary oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day beyond June have not yet begun formally, but sources within OPEC+ suggest that the cuts could be maintained if demand does not pick up.

OPEC+ is set to meet on June 1st to decide on production policy going forward, amidst a complex geopolitical landscape and shifting market dynamics.