Kursk Offensive Could Spell Military End for Ukraine, Expert Warns

The Military Offensive in Kursk and the Potential Outcome for Ukraine

The ongoing military offensive in Kursk could potentially have significant consequences for Ukraine, according to Gustav Gressel, a senior member of the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
In a recent interview with Spiegel Online, Gressel highlighted the risks of Ukraine’s invasion of the Russian region.

The situation in Kursk remains complex and shrouded in limited and often propaganda-laden information amidst the current war.
On August 7th, Ukraine initiated an invasion of Russian territory starting from the city of Sumy.
Ukrainian forces crossed the border and entered the hostile region of Kursk in the far west of Russia, home to a nuclear power plant and a crucial gas hub supplying Europe, particularly countries like Hungary and Slovakia heavily reliant on Gazprom.

As of now, it has been confirmed that Ukraine has control over approximately 28 villages in Kursk, with the incursion extending about 12 km deep and 40 km wide.
This move led Russian President Vladimir Putin to declare a state of emergency in the oblast, resulting in the displacement of 120,000 people, with more potentially facing the same fate.

The Potential Reversal of Fortunes for Ukraine

Despite the limited information available, credible sources suggest that Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian territory, reaching areas between Sudja in the east, Malaya Loknya in the north, and Novoivanovkaim in the northwest.
Ukrainian brigades are reportedly involved in the operation, with the advance halted by the arrival of 7,000 Russian soldiers, and more reinforcements on the way.

Analysts warn that Ukraine may struggle to maintain its positions in Kursk over the long term due to the increasing personnel and resource demands of further advances.
This sustained operation could incur unsustainable costs for Ukraine, benefiting Russia, which has greater military resources to deploy across a broader front.

Gressel suggests that Ukraine’s initial advantage in Kursk may quickly turn into a disadvantage, given its inferiority to the Russian military in terms of personnel and ammunition.
The consequences of Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory remain uncertain, with Kursk representing another unpredictable chapter in a war resembling a complex puzzle.

As events continue to unfold, the long-term implications of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk remain to be seen, with the strategic and military landscape potentially shifting in unexpected ways, shaping the dynamics between the two nations.