Europe in 3 data. Where are we with the recovery?
To understand how Europe is truly recovering in terms of economic growth and slowing inflation, data and reports published on Tuesday 2 April may be useful.
3 numbers offer an overall view of the progress of the European recovery, still slowed down by gray areas (such as the manufacturing sector) but improving, cautiously, if we look at consumer prices.
While the US continues to show resilience and strength through more than satisfactory economic results, Europe travels at a much slower pace.
The photograph of the European economic health in 3 issues.
Manufacturing PMI 46.1 Euro zone manufacturing activity worsened further in March, contracting at a faster pace than in February, while demand continued to fall, according to a survey that nevertheless showed rising optimism .
The final Eurozone HCOB manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 46.1 in March from 46.5 in February, beating a preliminary estimate of 45.7 but remaining at below the threshold of 50 which denotes a contraction in activity for the 21st month.
“It's a little disheartening: Over the last eight months, the manufacturing industry has gradually moved up the scale of the PMI output, but still finds itself stuck in the basement,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
New orders fell for a 23rd month even as factories cut prices at the fastest pace since November.
Factories across the bloc have cut staff again, but in a sign that managers expect improvement, the index of future production, a gauge of optimism, rose to 57.4 from 57.1, the highest level since April last year.
read also Europe at risk of shock for 3 reasons Inflation expectation in 1 year at 3.1% Eurozone consumers lowered their short-term inflation expectations in February, but long-term projections remained unchanged, according to findings Tuesday from a new survey by the European Central Bank.
Consumers now see headline inflation at 3.1% next year, below expectations of 3.3% the previous month, the monthly survey of consumer expectations showed.
“They are now at their lowest level since the start of Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine in February 2022,” the ECB wrote in the note.
It should be noted that economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at -1.1%, still a negative note due to the perception of the recovery in Europe which is struggling.
Inflation in Germany at 2.2% Consumer price inflation in Germany fell to 2.2% in March 2024 from 2.5% in the previous month, in line with market forecasts, a preliminary estimate showed .
This is the lowest rate since May 2021, moving closer to the European Central Bank's 2.0% target.
Furthermore, the EU harmonized rate also fell to 2.3%, the lowest level in almost three years and slightly below the market consensus of 2.4%.
Goods inflation slowed sharply to 1.0% from 1.8 in February, as the cost of energy fell at a faster pace (-2.7% versus -2.4%) and prices of food products fell for the first time since February 2015.