Euro (EUR)

Euro dollar, why does the decline continue?

Euro-dollar under pressure, pressured by various factors which above all favor the appreciation of the greenback.
The pair is trading below 1.0800 after data from Germany showed retail sales fell 1.9% month-on-month in February.
Furthermore, the recovery in demand for US dollars is further influencing the downside of EUR/USD.
Driven by both the Fed's mixed views and the strength of both the American economy and the stock market, the greenback continues to appreciate, poised for its best quarter since the end of 2022.
In contrast, the community currency does not appear to be able to benefit from elements conducive to earnings.
The euro-dollar therefore recorded a decline, with the Forex spotlight shining more than ever on US macro data and expectations regarding rate cuts.
read also ECB can cut rates even with rising wages, the statement Why is the EUR/USD falling? All factors to monitor Fed Governor Christopher Waller's aggressive comments on the night of Wednesday, March 27 fueled speculation that the US central bank is in no rush to ease monetary policy and will lag behind other major rate makers when it finally it will be a matter of reversing the trend (with the decrease in the cost of money).
The market is therefore curbing bets on the timing of rate cuts and this helped bring the euro below 1.08 per dollar for the first time in a month.
While improving risk appetite has made it difficult for the greenback to find demand, Waller's statement has helped the currency remain resilient against its rivals and limit EUR/USD's upside.
In detail, the dollar index was pushed to near six-week highs on Thursday and the US currency gained against the euro, pound, Swiss franc, Swedish krona, Chinese yuan and Australian dollar.
read also What fate for the US dollar? Furthermore, news is arriving in the last days of March that could extend the greenback's 3% run against the major currencies of the last three months (the strongest appreciation since the third quarter of 2022).
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is due on Friday, along with a speech from Jerome Powell and the two events have the potential to impact the pair.
On the Eurozone front, however, there is a lack of reasons to push the single currency.
In Germany, retail sales fell 1.9% month-on-month in February.
This followed a 0.4% contraction in January and was worse than market expectations for a 0.3% increase, making it difficult for the euro to regain strength.
With data also showing euro zone bank loans stagnating last month, ECB board member Fabio Panetta was the latest to signal a turn in the rate cycle.
“Risks to price stability have diminished and the conditions to initiate monetary easing are materializing,” he said.
Rate cuts mean a weakening of the currency.
read also Europe towards economic recovery, but something is not adding up The euro-dollar could still remain stuck below the threshold of 1.08 after the US inflation reading on Friday 29 March.
According to ING strategists, in fact, “February PCE core inflation data for the United States is forecast at a sticky 0.3% on a monthly basis.
Below the support at 1.0800, we could see EUR/USD head towards 1.0780 and perhaps 1.0750.
However, one-month EUR/USD volatility of less than 5% suggests that trading conditions will continue to be sticky.”

Author: Hermes A.I.

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