Will migrants save the US from recession?

An increasingly controversial topic is that of migrants in the USA in the midst of the election campaign.
The growing number of arrivals in the powerhouse has sown division among the nation's politicians.
Republican lawmakers want more funding to secure the border with Mexico.
Democrats, meanwhile, want to give many migrants a quicker path to citizenship.
Often absent from arguments is the economic impact of immigration.
At a time when record numbers of migrants have entered the US, the economic implications have even more weight.
Overall, according to various expert analyses, it is difficult to argue that higher immigration rates are completely beneficial for everyone.
However, it is equally difficult to argue that this is a lose-lose situation.
Not surprisingly, last month the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculated that immigration will generate a $7 trillion increase in GDP over the next decade.
This is how migrants boost the US economy.
The calculations are rather simple to do.
“More workers means more production, and that in turn leads to additional tax revenue,” Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, told reporters after the agency released a new report on the economic outlook.
The report included a special section on immigration and its impact on the economy.
While not all migrants, such as children or the infirm, will or will be able to find work, most recent and future migrants are believed to be between the ages of 25 and 54.
People in that age range are considered part of the working population.
As a result, the nation's GDP – a measure of the size of an economy – will grow by another $7 trillion over the next decade, the agency predicts.
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is estimated to grow by an average of 0.2 percentage points each year due to increased immigration.
The federal government will benefit with $1 trillion in additional tax revenue, according to the CBO.
An analysis by Paul Krugman in the New York Times added on the topic that overall “immigration appears to have been a major boon to U.S.
economic growth, among other things by expanding our productive capacity so as to reduce the inflationary impact of Biden's spending programs.” It's also important to realize that immigration, if it continues (and if a future Trump administration doesn't round up millions of people for deportation), will help pay for Social Security and Medicare.
91% of adult immigrants between 2022 and 2034 are projected to be under the age of 55, compared to 62% of the overall population.
This means that a considerable number of additional workers contribute to the system without receiving pension benefits for many years, according to Krugman's reasoning.
The economic impact of immigration on the US should not be overlooked.
The CBO statement has spurred a wave of new analysis among investment bank economists to take into account the boost that the new arrivals are giving to the workforce and spending.
of consumers.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
raised its near-term economic growth forecast.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
and BNP Paribas SA were among the banks that recognized the economic impact from increased immigration in recent weeks.
“Immigration is not only a very challenging social and political issue, it is also a major macroeconomic issue,” Janet Henry, chief global economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, wrote in a note to clients.
No advanced economy is benefiting from immigration like the United States, and “the impact of immigration has been an important part of the U.S.
growth story over the past two years.” Morgan Stanley economists Sam Coffin and Ellen Zentner noted this month that faster population growth fueled by immigration lends itself to stronger employment and population estimates than initially thought, although they added that the effect complete may not be captured by official data.
The link between the increased influx of foreign workers and the rapid post-pandemic recovery has been noted by both economists and politicians for some time now.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly cited immigration as one of the reasons behind strong economic growth.
Referring to the role played by a greater labor supply, Powell on Wednesday stressed that "a strong pace" of immigration helps on this front.
While there are warnings that increased immigration will reduce wages, businesses are stepping up calls for changes to attract more workers through legal channels.
There are nearly 9 million open positions across the economy, equal to 1.4 jobs for every person looking for a job.
Foreign-born workers made up 18.6% of the civilian workforce in 2023, and the United States approved a record number of work authorizations in the fiscal year through last September.
Not only that, immigrants are poised to become even more necessary in the U.S.
job market as more baby boomers enter retirement and fertility rates decline, said Watson, co-author of the book “The Border Within: The Economics of Immigration in an Age of Fear.” Migrants, a complex issue and not just economic The positive tone among economists contradicts that seen during the election campaign, while the increase in the number of undocumented immigrants entering the United States through the southern border fuels political conflict.
It is no coincidence that the issue of the law passed by the Texas legislature, known as Senate Bill 4, which makes it a crime to enter Texas from a foreign country anywhere other than a legal port of entry, usually international bridges, is causing much discussion in the United States.
from Mexico.
Texas argued that the record number of migrant arrivals at the border constituted an “invasion” from which the state had the power to defend itself under Article I, Section 10 of the U.S.
Constitution, which prohibits states from engaging in an war on its own unless actually invaded.
The law is the subject of an ongoing legal battle, with the U.S.
Supreme Court briefly allowing it to take effect on Tuesday.
But a lower court blocked its implementation hours later, amid continuing challenges to the law's constitutionality.
That court heard additional arguments Wednesday weighing the pause.
According to a recent Gallup poll, the percentage of Americans who see immigration as the most important issue facing the United States now reaches a record high dating back to four decades.