Markets, why does a crucial week begin today?
Markets grapple with a week full of data, with trading in Asia starting the day subdued.
Asian shares, in fact, stopped below seven-month highs, while investors await inflation data from the United States, Japan and Europe which will help define expectations on future rate movements.
MSCI's Asia Pacific gauge erased earlier gains as stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China fell.
European and U.S.
stock futures also fell after the S&P 500 rally stalled late last week, weighed down by profit-taking in megacap technology stocks.
The Japanese Nikkei 225 index instead hit a new high, as traders returned from a long weekend.
Of note, Japanese trading company stocks rose after Warren Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders that Japanese companies follow investor-friendly policies that are “much superior” to those of US companies.
read also Earthquake markets? 6 reasons to fear instability The markets week under the lens: what is about to happen? The week that has just begun will be marked by significant updates on inflation.
Japanese consumer price data will be released on Tuesday and core inflation is expected to fall to 1.8% in January, the lowest level since March 2022.
A weak result would help the case against a tightening by the Bank of Japan, although politicians appear to be counting on rising wages to justify ending negative rates in March or April.
Inflation data in the European Union will be released on Friday, with the core index seen still slowing to its lowest since the start of 2022 at 2.9%.
The day could thus be approaching when the ECB would be inclined to cut rates.
In the US, Thursday's so-called core personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, is already highly anticipated.
According to Bloomberg Economics, the main and core PCE are both expected to reach a strong pace of 0.4% on a monthly basis – versus 0.2% previously for both – driven largely by residual seasonality.
read also Will the Fed raise rates again? Scary forecast The shift in Fed rate cut bets saw Treasury yields hit a three-month high last week, although bonds managed to recover on Friday.
The US market will face a tough test later in the session as the Treasury sells $127 billion in two- and five-year bonds, with another $42 billion in seven-year notes due Tuesday.
China Concern China is in the spotlight of investors more than ever after 11 Chinese companies lost their credit ratings on Friday as Moody's Investors Service withdrew the ratings in an unusual flurry of updates highlighting the consequences of default records.
Traders are waiting to see whether the government will roll out more stimulus after President Xi Jinping on Friday called for an increase in sales of traditional consumer products, including cars and appliances.
Whether existing stimulus is truly good for the economy will be assessed when China releases purchasing managers data later in the week.