China has announced its goals for 2024. Where will the dragon go?
China steals the economic and financial scene today, with the publication of the "Report on Government Work" in which the dragon has set a growth target of "around 5%" for 2024.
The most important week of the year for the Asian power, with the 14th National People's Congress during which the Communist Party dictates the guidelines for politics and the economy.
China's highest-profile political meeting comes as President Xi Jinping seeks to restore confidence in an economy grappling with a prolonged housing crisis, falling domestic demand and headwinds stemming from his geopolitical rivalry with the United States.
Investors have called for strong action as foreign investors continue to retreat from the world's second-largest economy after years of sharp political swings.
Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong fell after the key targets were announced.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell as much as 3%, its biggest decline in more than a month, while the onshore CSI 300 Index swung between gains and losses before rising slightly in the afternoon session.
The yuan was little changed in both onshore and offshore markets on Tuesday.
read also Why China's production overcapacity scares the West What are China's ambitions for 2024? China has set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024 and announced the issuance of “ultra-long” special bonds for large projects.
Premier Li Qiang, who presented the official document, also promised that the nation will eliminate restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector.
China also set a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% for the year, down from an upward revision to 3.8% late last year.
The work report also states that Beijing will issue 1 trillion yuan ($138.9 billion) in “ultra-long” Treasury special bonds this year to finance large projects in line with national strategies, while 3, 9 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments this year, 100 billion yuan more than last year.
Beijing also wants to target an urban unemployment rate of around 5.5%, the creation of 12 million new urban jobs and an increase in the consumer price index of around 3%.
The 2024 objectives are the same as those set for 2023.
read also The specter of Trump scares Europe: so China wants to take advantage of it Furthermore, the budget plans foresee an increase in defense spending by 7.2% this year , similar to 2023, a figure closely watched by the United States and the dragon's neighbors, who are cautious about its strategic intentions as tensions over Taiwan rise.
China's defense budget has doubled since President Xi Jinping came to power more than a decade ago.
This year marks the 30th consecutive increase in defense spending, based on research from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Beijing's risks and challenges The working report states that “internal engines of development are being built,” but adds that the country should be “well prepared for all risks and challenges.” “We will implement a package of measures to defuse risks caused by existing debts and protect ourselves from risks arising from new debts,” Beijing said in the working report.
“We will take prudent measures to defuse risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions in some locations and take tough measures against illegal financial activities.” Of note, China's real estate problems are closely intertwined with local government finances as local governments have historically relied on land sales to developers for a significant portion of revenue.
The property market collapsed after Beijing cracked down on developers' high reliance on debt for growth in 2020, easing the bankruptcies of some industry giants and leaving marks on consumption growth.
read also Why Joe Biden's green energy plan is a gift for China Overall, with a growth target similar to last year's, which will be more difficult to achieve as the post-Covid recovery is losing momentum, Beijing highlights that wants to prioritize growth over any reform.
This seems to be the biggest challenge.