USA vs Europe, the 2 economies compared

The USA and Europe are increasingly distant in the post-pandemic economic recovery path: this emerges from the latest macro data of the week.
While on the one hand the US economy remains resilient and the recession remains in the background, the EU appears to be a fragile bloc with more bumpy and uneven growth prospects.
Germany leads the pessimism in the old continent, with manufacturing numbers surprising on the downside and threatening to hold Europe back further.
Meanwhile, economists are much more optimistic about US growth over the next two years, according to the latest Bloomberg survey.
In this context, the comparison between the USA and Europe still shows 2 different situations, with the only point in common represented by the prudence of the central banks – Fed and ECB – on the first rate cut.
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Industry worsens, data Europe teeters between recovery and German crisis This year, Germany sees its faltering economy expand by just 0.2% – a much weaker recovery than the 1.3% that the Chancellor's government Olaf Scholz had predicted.
Geopolitical tensions and high interest rates are weighing on the recovery, although rising real wages and a robust labor market should help through 2024, the nation's economy minister said.
Private sector activity in the Eurozone, meanwhile, hit an eight-month high.
But the factory indicator for the region's largest economy hit its lowest since October, with a decline in output accompanied by a decline in new orders at home and abroad.
As the ISPI graph shows, the German locomotive has shut down: A 5% drop has characterized the volume of industrial production since the invasion of Ukraine, much more marked than Italy's -2% and decidedly worse than the positive French performance.
US Resilience Economists have again revised down their US recession forecasts on expectations that a stable job market and robust consumer spending will support stronger economic growth in the near term.
According to Bloomberg's latest monthly survey of economists, the economy is expected to expand at a rate of 2.1% this year – up from 1.5% expected last month – against a backdrop of strong household demand and government spending stronger.
U.S.
manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since September 2022, fueled by stronger order growth and suggesting manufacturers are emerging from a prolonged slump.
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