Top ETFs to Invest in if Trump Wins the 2024 US Elections

Investing in ETFs if Trump Wins the 2024 US Elections

The recent attack on former President Donald Trump has significantly shaken the American political arena, leading to a sudden increase in the probability of his victory in the upcoming presidential elections in November.

According to the online prediction tool PredictIt, Trump’s chances of winning have risen from 61% to 67% immediately after the attack.
This significant increase can be attributed to a wave of sympathy and solidarity towards Trump, a phenomenon that has occurred in the past, such as after the attack on Ronald Reagan in 1981, which led to an increase in his popular support.

Some analysts already point out that this growing polarization could further consolidate support for Trump’s candidacy, creating a climate of greater uncertainty in the financial markets.

In this context, investors are already reacting by shifting their capital towards assets less correlated with market events or towards “safe haven” assets.
Bitcoin has seen a significant increase as investors seek alternatives against possible political instability.
Similarly, gold, historically considered a safe haven asset, has attracted more attention.

Who Will Benefit from a Trump Victory?

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin represents an interesting investment solution for those looking to gain exposure to the most popular cryptocurrency without the need to directly purchase Bitcoin.
This Exchange Traded Note (ETN) tracks the performance of Bitcoin through a debt securities-backed note, supported by the physical holding of the cryptocurrency itself.

This means that the ETN is covered by real reserves of Bitcoin, offering investors greater security compared to other ways of investing in cryptocurrencies.
With assets under management of around €1.350 million and a total expense ratio (TER) of 2.00% per year, the ETC Group Physical Bitcoin has shown remarkable return potential, as evidenced by its increase of +89.50% in the last year and a total of +470.93% since its launch.
However, it is crucial to consider the high volatility of Bitcoin, with an annual volatility of 43.40%, which requires investors to have a certain risk tolerance and a well-considered portfolio management strategy.

Gold: The Traditional Safe Haven in Times of Political and Economic Uncertainty

Gold has historically been seen as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty.
The prospect of a Trump victory, accompanied by a possible escalation of political tensions, could drive investors towards gold.

For investors seeking stability and protection against economic uncertainty, the iShares Physical Gold ETC represents an interesting option.
This ETC offers a physical replication of the gold price, guaranteed by the actual holding of the precious metal, providing greater transparency and security.
With assets under management of around €13.506 million, this financial instrument stands out for its size and liquidity, making it an accessible option even for larger investors.

The TER of 0.12% per year is extremely competitive, allowing investors to benefit from gold returns with very low management costs.
Recent returns have been significant, with a +25.67% in the last year and a total increase of +111.29% since its launch.
The volatility of the iShares Physical Gold ETC is relatively low, at 12.08% on an annual basis, making it a less risky option compared to investments in cryptocurrencies, but still capable of offering effective protection against market fluctuations and inflation.

Conclusions

A victory of Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential elections could create a political environment that favors an increase in demand for safe haven assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Investors can take advantage of this potential opportunity through specific ETFs.

While Bitcoin offers high growth potential, it comes with higher volatility and risk.
Gold, on the other hand, represents a more stable and secure choice.
By diversifying their portfolio, investors could balance return potential with risk management, adequately preparing to face the possible market scenarios resulting from the presidential elections.

The key is to maintain a well-considered investment strategy, carefully assess risk tolerance, and use available financial tools effectively to protect and grow capital in times of uncertainty.