Political Polls: PD and Salvini in Decline, Meloni and M5s Surge, Renzi Gains Support
Latest Political Polls in Italy
The latest political survey by Swg, released on July 8th by Tg La7, came shortly after the outcome of the elections in France, where the left outperformed the right by a significant margin in the legislative vote.
Looking at the Swg survey, the situation in Italy seems to be completely different, with Giorgia Meloni apparently heading confidently towards the psychological threshold of 30%.
Fratelli d’Italia’s growth seems to have come entirely at the expense of the League: despite Matteo Salvini’s activism, the latest setback in voting intentions for the League was caused by the controversial amendment on mandatory vaccines.
Meanwhile, Forza Italia remains stable, having surpassed the League again, more due to Salvini’s party’s shortcomings than its own merits.
Including Noi Moderati, the center-right is reported as stable and well above the percentages that would ensure a coalition victory in the event of an election.
In France, the alliance between centrists and the left may have defused the “threat” posed by Marine Le Pen, thanks also to a different electoral system.
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni seems to be able to sleep relatively peacefully.
Regarding the opposition, Swg’s political survey seems to dampen any ambition of the Democratic Party to worry Giorgia Meloni: indeed, the Democrats are declining and are now almost six percentage points behind FdI.
On the other hand, the 5 Star Movement is doing well, but this leap seems more like a Pyrrhic victory since they are just above the double digits, far from the percentage obtained in the last elections.
The Green-Left Alliance would confirm a position well above the threshold, closer to double digits than the 3% mark needed to elect their own parliamentarians both in the Chamber and in the Senate.
Despite the decline indicated by the survey, Azione would be above the threshold, with Carlo Calenda currently winning this sort of challenge against his former ally Matteo Renzi.
However, Italia Viva seems to be recovering, with Renzi still having the trump card of the common ground with the moderates, although after the failure of the alliance with +Europa in the European elections, centrists seem cautious about the former premier’s projects.
With the divided opposition striving to compete for the same electorate, as highlighted by the survey, the majority seems solid, waiting for the government to begin preparing a Budget Law after the summer, which could be challenging for the Italians.
