Markets on alert for these 5 events. What's about to happen?

Markets continue to be stimulated by potentially impactful events and next week could yet be surprising, with 5 key factors to absolutely monitor.
First of all, the ECB is in the foreground, with the meeting on 7 March.
Rates will probably continue to remain unchanged, but the wait is all for Lagarde and possible previews of the first cuts in the cost of money.
Furthermore, some US macro data and Biden's speech on the State of the Union are noteworthy.
On the Asian front, the spotlight is about to turn on the National People's Congress in China, which will begin its annual session.
There is maximum alert among investors and analysts.
The markets could suffer new shocks driven by these 5 events relevant to finance and the world economy.
read also The credibility of the ECB hangs in the balance on inflation.
Word of the EU 1.
ECB meeting, breakthrough coming soon? The ECB will meet on Thursday 7 March and the focus will be on one question: will policy makers repeat that it is too early to discuss rate cuts or will they open the door to a move? Rates have remained unchanged since September and the Eurotower has so far rejected rumors of an imminent fall in the cost of money.
Wage pressures remain high although they are easing.
Therefore, after pricing in rate cuts of 150bps in early 2024, markets now expect around 90bps with a first move fully priced in June.
Bets also suggest that the ECB could cut before the Fed does, which is perhaps unsurprising given the eurozone's relatively weak economy.
The ECB usually moves after the US bank.
2.
US protagonists, with new data and more The US earnings season is coming to an end, but investors already have other events to monitor such as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and US employment data of February Friday.
Excitement about the potential of artificial intelligence has helped push stocks to new record highs, even as a robust economy dampens rate cut bets.
Signs of continued labor market strength or an aggressive message from the Fed could make it harder for investors to shake off worries about how higher interest rates for a longer period could impact markets and the economy .
read also USA vs Europe, the 2 economies compared.
Among these effects is an increase in Treasury bond yields, potentially disruptive for shares if it continues.
Ten-year yields have risen 40 basis points this year.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the US economy to create 188,000 new jobs, after exploding by 353,000 jobs in January.
3.
Super Tuesday and debt It may be too early to adequately assess and position the US presidential election in November, but “Super Tuesday” will shed light on the political divisions and challenges America faces.
We are talking about the day of the American presidential primary cycle in which the majority of states vote, with Biden and Donald Trump expected to secure the Democratic and Republican nominations.
In the background, but not too much, there is also the issue of the debt ceiling.
The US Congress on Thursday approved a short-term measure to avoid a partial federal government shutdown.
Meanwhile, the Treasury market absorbed $169 billion in debt issuance with relative ease.
However, polarized politics over government finances reminds us that the national debt is $34 trillion and rising, so Treasuries could suffer.
4.
China's National People's Congress There are high hopes for new stimulus in China when the National People's Congress begins its annual session on Tuesday, aiming to revive a shattered real estate sector and reinvigorate weakened consumers given the worst deflation since the global financial crisis.
There is much more at stake than achieving what is likely to be another 5% economic growth target this year.
do you also read India or China? Here's where to invest Chinese stocks have recovered from five-year lows hit in early February, breaking a six-month losing streak with their best monthly performance since late 2022.
State-led purchases were the main drivers and stricter rules on short selling.
However, it is difficult not to consider that the slide towards the lows of the last five years was determined by the dashed hopes of an intervention by Beijing.
This puts the market spotlight on what will happen in the days to come.
5.
A tough budget in the UK British finance minister Jeremy Hunt must find a way to cut taxes in Wednesday's budget to help Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's bleak election prospects without causing another upset in bond markets.
Memories of former prime minister Liz Truss's "mini-budget" crisis are still fresh and the fiscal outlook has shown no improvement since then, leaving Hunt with little room to maneuver when he appears in Parliament on March 6.
However, media speculation has focused on possible income tax cuts or another reduction in Social Security rates, and investors expect Hunt to use most if not all of the “fiscal space” he has .