Harris vs. Trump: Who Will Win the Upcoming US Elections According to a Historian with a 90% Accuracy Rate?
Who Will Win the US Presidential Election in November?
As the election campaign heats up between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, predictions about the next occupant of the White House are proliferating.
Notably, historian Allan Lichtman, who accurately forecasted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections, has shared his insights on the potential outcome for this year.
Lichtman bases his predictions on thirteen key factors or general questions that assess the strength and performance of the party currently in power.
Over the past fifty years, the historian has accurately predicted the outcomes of nearly all elections, with the exception of the contested 2000 election where Republican George W.
Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
So, who does Lichtman predict will emerge victorious between Harris and Trump this November?
Lichtman’s Insights and Predictions
Known as the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections, Lichtman forecasts that Kamala Harris will win the presidency come November.
Despite earlier warnings to Democrats about the risks of sidelining Joe Biden, Lichtman believes that the Vice President, who will likely become the Democratic candidate following Biden’s potential withdrawal in July, is on track to defeat Donald Trump.
This prediction holds even as the Democrats appear to have relinquished the critical “key” of incumbency, which is one of the thirteen factors he analyzed.
The “Keys to the White House” Model
Lichtman’s predictions rely on a specific methodology known as the “Keys to the White House,” developed in the early 1980s in collaboration with geophysicist Vladimir Kogan.
This model incorporates 13 true-false statements to evaluate the political landscape and the performance of the ruling party.
If six or more keys are false, the incumbent party is expected to lose the election.
Here are the 13 statements (to be evaluated as true or false):
- Party Mandate: The incumbent party has more seats in the House of Representatives than after the last midterm election.
- Contested Nomination: There are no significant challenges to the incumbent party’s nomination.
- Presidential Incumbency: The sitting president is representative of the incumbent party.
- Third-Party Factor: No notable third-party or independent candidacy exists.
- Short-Term Economic Stability: The economy does not experience a recession during the election period.
- Long-Term Economic Growth: Real per capita economic growth is equal to or greater than the average growth of the previous two terms.
- Political Change: The incumbent administration implements significant changes in domestic policy.
- Social Stability: There are no prolonged social disturbances during the administration.
- Scandals: The incumbent administration is free from major scandals.
- Foreign/Military Failures: The administration faces no major foreign or military failures.
- Foreign/Military Successes: The current administration achieves significant foreign or military successes.
- Charisma: The incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic or enjoys national hero status.
- Challenger Appeal: The opposing candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.
Current Favorability for Harris
According to Lichtman, eight of these “keys” currently favor Harris, bolstered by the absence of a strong third-party candidate following Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign, along with positive short-term and long-term economic indicators.
Significant legislative successes under the Biden administration and a lack of social unrest or scandals also play in her favor.
Moreover, Harris benefited from not facing a challenging party nomination, as other potential candidates quickly rallied to support her ahead of the Democratic National Convention last month.
Even if two unresolved issues regarding foreign policy successes or failures tilted in Trump’s favor, Lichtman suggests that they wouldn’t be enough for him to secure victory in the election.
Looking Ahead
The history will tell whether Lichtman’s predictions ring true once again.
He accurately forecasted Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 against Hillary Clinton when most polls indicated otherwise, and he also predicted that Trump would face legal challenges during his presidency, a phenomenon that indeed occurred twice.
