Could a Total War Erupt in the Middle East?

The Volatile Situation in Lebanon and the Middle East

Lebanon and the wider Middle East have become increasingly volatile, resembling a powder keg ready to explode.

The recent Israeli strike in Beirut threatens to ignite a total war in the region, particularly as the Palestinian genocide continues unabated while the West stands idly by.

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the historic leader of the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, during an Israeli raid in Beirut has sparked a new wave of violence.

Hezbollah has already vowed retaliation against these attacks.
This dramatic development, combined with the rising intensity of cross-border skirmishes along the Israeli-Lebanese frontier, raises concerns about a broader escalation with potentially devastating consequences for the entire region.

In addition to Hezbollah, Iran may play a crucial role in this conflict by providing military support to its Lebanese allies.
In light of these events, many are now questioning whether the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war.

Understanding the Historical Context of Lebanon-Israel Tensions

Understanding the historical roots of tensions between Lebanon and Israel is vital in assessing the risk of large-scale conflict.
The two nations have been in a state of armistice since 1949, yet the conflict has reignited multiple times over the decades.

A key turning point occurred in 1978 with “Operation Litani,” when Israel invaded southern Lebanon to push Palestinian fighters back beyond the Litani River and establish a “security zone” along its border.
This intervention marked the beginning of a prolonged series of direct confrontations between Israel and armed groups in Lebanon.

In 1982, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon (Operation Peace for Galilee) marked another significant chapter in the conflict’s history.
Israel inflicted severe blows on the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), forcing them to evacuate Beirut.
This event is still remembered as the First Lebanon War.

Fast forward to 2006, when the Second Lebanon War erupted, pitting Israel against Hezbollah.
This 33-day conflict resulted in approximately 1,200 Lebanese deaths, primarily civilians, and led to widespread destruction of the country’s infrastructure.

The UN subsequently dispatched a peacekeeping force (UNIFIL), comprising around one thousand Italian soldiers, which is still present today.

Despite these interventions, hostilities between Lebanon and Israel have never truly subsided, with periodic escalations continuing to unfold.
Hezbollah and Israel remain central actors in a latent conflict that could erupt at any moment.

The Killing of Hezbollah’s Leader: What’s Next?

The Israeli airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah represents a considerable blow to the Shiite movement’s leadership and could destabilize the entire region.
Nasrallah was viewed as one of the Middle East’s most charismatic and strategic figures, capable of maintaining a semblance of stability within his movement despite Israeli provocations.

His assassination has significantly raised the stakes for a military escalation, as discussions unfold regarding his potential successor, Hashem Safieddine.
Hezbollah, which has strong ties with Iran, has promised to continue its “holy war” against Israel, while Tehran has expressed its commitment to support Lebanon in the event of a large-scale conflict.

According to Iranian officials, deploying troops or employing more powerful weaponry in response to Israeli operations has not been ruled out.
Such direct Iranian intervention could escalate the conflict, drawing in regional and international powers.

Concerns extend beyond Lebanon; Nasrallah’s disappearance may prompt more radical and younger Hezbollah members to opt for military escalation, potentially utilizing a more sophisticated arsenal against Israel.

The Growing Risk of Total War in the Middle East

The risk of a large-scale war in the Middle East is more palpable than ever.
Josep Borrell, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, has recently warned of an imminent “total war,” highlighting the stagnation in diplomatic progress toward de-escalation.

The ongoing exchanges of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with the involvement of regional actors like Iran, heighten the chances that the conflict could escalate beyond Lebanon’s borders.
However, many experts caution that igniting a global war does not align with Iran’s interests.

Nevertheless, Israel remains steadfast in its determination to pursue its agenda in the Middle East, including the ongoing Palestinian genocide, seemingly undeterred by the looming threat of civilian casualties in Lebanon, and buoyed by the lack of intervention from the West.

The United States, in particular, has repeatedly voted against ceasefire proposals since the beginning of the Gaza invasion, effectively ensuring Israel’s ongoing actions go unchecked.

The escalating situation is further complicated by international diplomatic pressure, with several Western countries, including Italy, urging their citizens to evacuate Lebanon.
This serves as a troubling signal of imminent escalation.

If Iran were to become involved directly, its presence could serve as a catalyst for broader regional warfare, potentially involving other powers such as Saudi Arabia, which may feel threatened by Iran’s increased presence in Lebanon.

Moreover, the specter of a humanitarian disaster looms large, reminiscent of how Israel had previously instructed Palestinians to move towards Rafah, only to subsequently bombard that location.
The increasing hostilities are already prompting thousands of Lebanese civilians to flee their homes, creating a refugee crisis with potential repercussions that extend beyond Lebanon’s borders.

The likelihood of total war in the Middle East is not to be underestimated.
Without decisive and strong diplomatic intervention from the international community to halt the cycles of violence, particularly the aggressive actions of Israel and Netanyahu, the region risks descending into a devastating conflict, the ramifications of which would be felt far beyond Lebanon and Israel.