What is happening in Transnistria and why it matters for Russia

Tensions are worsening between the government of Moldavia (or Moldova) and that of Transnistria, the separatist Moldovan and pro-Russian region.
Just two years ago, Moldova applied as a member country to join the European Union, making a series of social, political and economic changes.
And it is in this context that the state imposed new customs duties on January 1, 2024 on imports and exports from Transnistria, a strip of land that borders Ukraine.
Tariffs have deeply angered members of Transnistria's self-proclaimed congress, who say the measures would harm local residents and businesses.
Thus, in a rare meeting in the regional capital, Tiraspol, they reportedly asked for defensive intervention by the Duma.
After the request for protection, the spotlight is all on Moscow and experts are wondering what Putin's political move could be, still involved in the war in Ukraine.
It is appropriate to clarify, explaining where Transnistria is located, why it is important for Russia and what the possible scenarios are.
read also Europe is ready for war with Russia: what will Italy do after the Meloni-Zelensky pact? Where is Transnistria Transnistria is an unrecognized independent state that remained loyal to Russia after the dissolution of the USSR.
A strip of land located between Moldova, of which it is formally part, and Ukraine.
To date, the State has not yet been recognized by the UN member countries.
Until recently, the country was famous above all as a unique tourist destination, capable of transporting visitors back to when the USSR still existed, thanks to its imposing Soviet architecture and the half-busts of Lenin scattered in every corner of the city.
Transnistria is today the last country to have the hammer and sickle in its flag.
Why is Transnistria so important for Russia? Russia may not have carefully considered the strategic importance of Transnistria, at least until today.
In fact, in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, the authorities of Tiraspol – capital of the separatist Moldovan republic – asked to be incorporated by Russia, but Moscow replied that it was not in the interests of the Federation.
Yet, the Russian military presence on the territory has actually been uninterrupted since 1992, since the conflict that marked the de facto separation from Moldova.
Since then the soldiers have remained in the state, counterbalancing the influence of Romania, a NATO country.
In addition to hosting Russian troops, the country is a real weapons depot for Moscow.
Transnistria is strategically important for Russia due to its geographical location.
More than being the perfect front for the invasion of Moldova, Transnistria constitutes a front for the conquest of the strategic port of Odessa – which is a few kilometers from the Transnistrian border – which would allow the Russians to close access to the Black Sea to Ukraine.
But not only.
Transnistria is providing the Kremlin with justification for escalation and intervention to implement Russia's and others' commitments on the international stage.
This strip of land could therefore bring the war even closer to the borders of the European Union.
read also How Macron risked starting the third world war Transnistria, what happens if Russia intervenes: 5 possible scenarios And if the request for help from Transnistria remains ambiguous, as it is not clear what an intervention aimed at defend the separatist region, Europe looks with concern at Moscow.
Indeed, Konstantin Zatulin, chairman of the CIS Commission of the Duma, announced that the Lower House of Parliament will examine the request for assistance made by the Transnistrian Congress.
And if Alexei Chepa, vice president of the Foreign Affairs Commission, specified that the request implies the provision of economic aid by Moscow, experts wonder whether this request for help is merely the pretext to trigger an escalation in the area.
What is certain is that whatever decision Moscow makes, it will have repercussions on Moldova and Eastern Europe.
At the moment, 5 futuristic scenarios have been hypothesized.
Here's what could happen.
No action.
Russia may decide not to act immediately, leaving things as they are, allowing time to pass so that Putin can more carefully assess the situation.
Diplomatic pressure.
Moscow could put pressure on Moldova to revoke the Customs Code.
However, this code is necessary to align Moldova with EU requests.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin could decide to provide further humanitarian and economic aid to the region, strengthening its economic ties with the area.
Economic and military assistance.
The Kremlin could also decide to send military aid to the forces stationed in Transnistria, although it is not clear how, given that the Russian planes would have to cross Ukrainian and Romanian airspace and the only practicable alternative route would be to take an unlikely route through the Odessa region.
Destabilization.
On the other hand, Russia could take advantage of the situation, intensifying operations to destabilize and polarize Moldovan politics and society, in an attempt to delay the country's accession to the EU.
Annexation.
Finally, Russia could decide to formally annex Transnistria, in order to justify military intervention against Moldova.
An operation that would prove to be long-term like the one in Ukraine for Donbass.
The last hypothesis is the one that worries experts the most, as there would be an intensification of military activities in the area, with the risk of war escalation.
However, there appears to be no evidence to suggest such a large-scale intervention in the region.
All that remains is to remain vigilant and attentive to understand how the situation in Transnistria will evolve.
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