The markets are preparing to close the week preceding the Christmas holidays with 4 key points in the spotlight.
Chinese internet stocks fell on news of regulatory action, dragging Asian stocks lower for the last full trading week of the year, while the dollar faltered ahead of crucial US inflation data that is expected to validate the bets on rate cuts.
Overall, markets have been optimistic and euphoric for weeks, as consumer price data around the world showed a slowdown and the Federal Reserve signaled it was done raising interest rates.
Two-year U.S.
Treasury yields have fallen nearly 38 basis points in a week and a half.
Oil is set to gain ground on jitters over the safety of shipping in the Red Sea, but prices fell overnight after Angola said it will leave OPEC, raising questions about the producers group's efforts to limit global supply.
In this rather fragile context, investors observe 4 factors that can still shake the stock markets and which offer interesting clues as to how financial 2023 may end.
Challenges, pitfalls, potential surprises rather than certainties dominate the 2024 scenario.
1.
US inflation coming, new test for the Fed The US data expected today, 2.30 pm Italian time, are destined to strengthen the case for a reduction in interest rates Americans in the coming quarters.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicators – the price index of personal consumption expenditures and the measure that excludes food and energy – should see a weakening towards target levels.
This follows third-quarter GDP data that was revised downward on Thursday, further supporting the prospect of Fed cuts.
2.
US-China chip challenge continues The US Commerce Department will begin gathering information on the Chinese production of so-called legacy semiconductor chips, which are not cutting edge, but still remain vital to the global economy.
Control over how dependent US companies have become on Chinese technology is thus becoming increasingly widespread.
The department will examine more than 100 companies in automotive, aerospace, defense and other industries to understand how they source and use legacy chips, according to a Commerce official.
3.
China's control over gaming Chinese regulators have announced a broad range of rules aimed at curbing spending and rewards that encourage video gaming, dealing a blow to the world's largest gaming market, which returned to growth this year .
The new rules will set spending limits for online games, which will now be banned from giving players rewards if they log in every day, if they spend in the game for the first time or if they spend consecutively in the game.
These are all common incentive mechanisms in online games.
Shares of Tencent Holdings, the world's largest gaming company, fell as much as 16%, while those of its closest rival, NetEase, lost 25%.
Over the years, Beijing has become increasingly tough on video games.
In 2021, China set a strict gaming time limit for players under the age of 18 and suspended the approval of new video games for approximately 8 months, citing addiction concerns.
4.
OPEC in chaos, Angola leaves cartel Angola leaves OPEC following a dispute over oil production quotas, announcing its abandonment after 16 years of membership.
Other exits have occurred in recent years, with countries including Qatar, Indonesia and Ecuador deciding to exit the organisation.
The move will shrink the 12-nation cartel at a time when it is struggling to support prices, which have collapsed in recent months.
However, this does not necessarily portend a major immediate problem for the organization, or for the broader OPEC+ group that includes Russia.
“It does not signal an imminent breakdown in OPEC+ cohesion or jeopardize near-term supply cuts,” said Bob McNally, president of consultants Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official.
“That said, OPEC+ must maintain its united action for the coming years.”
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