Markets awaiting US inflation, what to expect?

All the markets' spotlights are on US inflation today, with the figure to be revealed at 1.30pm Italian time.
January's CPI rise rattled markets and prompted Fed officials to shift their rhetoric toward a more cautious tone regarding policy easing.
Current market prices indicate that the US central bank will not cut interest rates at its March 19-20 meeting or its April 30-May 1 meeting.
While waiting for the update, which is crucial in view of the decrease in the cost of money in the United States and in view of the next Fed meeting in 10 days, most Asian stocks close on the rise, led by technology stocks.
European and US stock futures also rose.
While waiting for US inflation, what is happening in the markets today? Asian stocks rose on the eve of a key US inflation report, while Japanese stocks fell and the yen strengthened on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may be ready to exit ultra-easy monetary policy early .
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Fresh uncertainty over BOJ rates Gold hovers just below its record high hit last week and the dollar remains broadly stable as traders await the US consumer price index report later in the day to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin its rate cutting cycle.
The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks Chinese technology stocks listed in Hong Kong, became the first major index in Hong Kong and China to recover 20% from its recent low.
At the time of writing, its earnings exceed 3%.
Xiaomi Corp.
was among the best performers in Asia, with shares posting their biggest jump in more than a year, after the automaker announced it will start selling its long-awaited electric vehicles this month.
What to expect from US consumer prices? Forecasts Investors' attention is focused on US inflation data due later, with expectations of a 0.4% monthly increase and 3.1% year-on-year increase.
Core inflation is expected to rise 0.3%, which would push the annual pace to 3.7%.
Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said that if the data turns out to be better than expectations, it could worry investors, even if only in the short term.
read also The hidden US crisis that alarms Powell “Markets have come to realize that the future path of inflation will be erratic and that higher-than-expected data for a month or two may not alter the medium-term outlook for the inflation, which is in a broad downward trend,” he explained.
Menon expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in June 2024 and continue through September and December.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, commented: “The CPI likely rose in February due to higher gasoline prices, but core inflation likely slowed further as auto prices fell and moderation of rent increases.” A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 45% of investors expect the market reaction to Tuesday's consumer price index to be "risk averse." According to the latest Reuters poll, a stronger majority of economists expect the Fed to start cutting rates in June.
The survey showed that respondents thought it more likely that if Fed policymakers changed their rate projections at their March meeting, the average view would signal fewer cuts this year, not more.