The markets today await the update on US inflation, considered crucial for the Federal Reserve's next moves.
The data arouses a lot of interest and sentiment is optimistic, with the forecast of an easing of prices in the October reading.
If inflation shows signs of easing, it could solidify the view that global interest rates are reaching their maximum level, thus leaving room for potential declines in 2024.
Prudence, however, remains dominant also in consideration of Powell's latest remarks, according to which the rate increases may not be over.
In this climate of expectation for US inflation – which will be published at 2.30 pm Italian time – the Asian session closed with an increase.
US stock futures are trading mixed and European stock futures are slightly higher.
The markets today await US inflation: what can happen? Today's US inflation report could influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and is therefore awaited with much interest by investors.
Attention is high, especially after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and several other members said they are not yet sure whether interest rates are high enough to hit the 2% inflation target.
Economists polled by Reuters expect overall U.S.
consumer price inflation to have fallen to 3.3% in October from 3.7% in September, with the so-called core inflation rate excluding volatile components unchanged.
“Markets are cautious today as they await the release of the U.S.
CPI,” said Eugenia Victorino, head of Asia strategy at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB in Singapore.
“An upside surprise on core inflation (particularly core-ex rents) could trigger more aggressive rhetoric from the Fed.” Anderson Alves, trader at ActivTrades commented: “This data has a significant influence on the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve.” “A failure to increase, especially in the less volatile component of core inflation, could lead operators to believe that the Fed will refrain from further increases.
On the contrary, a rise could favor a significant revaluation of the US interest rate curve in the short term,” he added.
The market day will also be marked by the publication of the Eurozone's preliminary GDP, which is important for understanding the extent to which the bloc's growth is weakening and what chances there are of falling into recession.
Additionally, several ECB and Fed members will speak in speeches and speeches.
Their statements are always listened to with great interest by investors.
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