S&P 500

Investments: all markets are growing but something doesn't add up

In recent times, the term "everything rally" has been at the center of many discussions and indicates the unbridled rush of markets towards new historic highs, fueled by a particular climate of euphoria, which has rarely been observed in the recent past.
This trend involves both the stock market, with particular attention to Western developed markets such as the United States and Europe, and the bond market of these countries, both characterized by a constant increase in prices.
Among the great protagonists of the moment there are also assets that typically tend to show a trend that does not comply with these market phases, such as precious metals, or the cryptocurrency market.
So, what does this «everything rally» depend on? The 60-40 portfolio continues to be a great choice for investors.
It's an extraordinary time for classic portfolios, like the 60-40, as investors see both the equity and bond components appreciate.
It should be underlined that this situation will continue from 2023, with some exceptions due to corrections or profit-taking, but they are short-lived.
The S&P500, the benchmark index of the US stock market, and the Eurostoxx 50, a point of reference for European investors, continue to exceed their historic highs in a rally driven by the push of the ongoing technological revolution.
At the same time, the prices of government and corporate bonds of these two countries appear to be gradually appreciating, accompanied by a slow but progressive reduction in yields.
Gold and Silver towards new highs, why? A peculiarity of this historical context concerns the surge recorded simultaneously in other market segments often considered anti-cyclical, i.e.
those with a high opportunity cost which makes them less convenient in market phases such as the current one.
A clear example is represented by raw materials, in particular the precious metals sector.
Gold and silver are experiencing notable appreciation, with gold once again surpassing its two-year all-time highs and continuing its rush into uncharted territory.
Silver also follows this trend, with a weekly performance above 4%, compared to gold's 3.80%.
The peculiarity of this situation lies in the fact that, although the current bond market offers higher yields than the averages of the last 20 years, with positive prospects also in terms of capital appreciation, and the shares are experiencing a period of strong bull-run, There is growing interest in gold investments.
This advantage seems motivated by a frequent search by investors for financial instruments aimed rather at capital preservation; without considering the increasingly convenient value compared to the dollar, which appears anchored downwards due to the Fed's prospects of cutting interest rates in 2024 and 2025.
What happens to the other markets and stock exchanges? As part of the "everything rally", cryptocurrencies are also emerging and have now become a significant asset on the market.
The returns of cryptocurrencies widely exceed those of traditional markets, positioning themselves as top performers in this period of growth.
Even the Chinese stock market, previously marked by losses, appears to have stopped its downward trend, albeit perhaps only temporarily.

Author: Hermes A.I.

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