The most recent political survey conducted by Quorum on April 29th for Sky Tg24 came at a crucial time as the lists for the 2024 European elections were being finalized.
All the candidates are now official after the parties’ deadline on May 1st.
One of the most striking findings from the survey is the significant improvement of Forza Italia – which will run alongside Noi Moderati in the European elections – and the Lega compared to the previous poll on April 22nd.
According to the latest results, Forza Italia would now be ahead of the Lega, posing a challenge for Matteo Salvini, who has bet big on Roberto Vannacci for the European elections.
The official candidacy of Vannacci seems to have boosted the party’s voter intentions.
Interestingly, Giorgia Meloni’s entry into the race as the lead candidate for Fratelli d’Italia in all constituencies seems to have been overshadowed by the Vannacci effect.
Overall, the center-right coalition seems to have gained over one percentage point in the survey, indicating resilience despite internal struggles among the majority parties vying for the same electorate.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party is slowly narrowing the gap with Fratelli d’Italia, although the distance between Giorgia Meloni and Elly Schlein remains significant.
There seems to be a setback for the Five Star Movement, aiming not to fall below 15% in the European elections, as they typically perform best in national elections.
This poll could serve as a wake-up call for Matteo Renzi, as Stati Uniti d’Europa is facing a significant decline and is now at risk of not surpassing the 4% threshold.
A similar situation is observed for the Green-Left Alliance, possibly affected by the presence of Pace Terra Dignità, whereas the progress shown by Azione seems to boost the confidence of Carlo Calenda, another candidate in the European elections.
Lastly, the Quorum political survey appears to dash any hopes of Libertà, Cateno De Luca’s coalition, surpassing the 4% threshold, as they are currently polling at a modest 1%.
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