ECB Rate Cuts: Who Stands to Gain and Who Will Lose?

BCE Interest Rates Decrease Again in September: Who Wins and Who Loses with a 25 Basis Points Cut?

The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its deposit rate to 3.50% and the refinancing rate to 3.65%.
This change significantly affects investors, savers, businesses, homeowners, and even the government, which incurs interest on its debt.

Everything from stocks to bonds, currency rates, mortgage repayments, property values, financing options, and state debt obligations is influenced by ECB’s rate policies.
Thus, with this 25 basis point cut, the landscape of winners and losers has altered.
But who benefits the most from the lower interest rate of 3.65%?

Who Benefits from the ECB Rate Cut?

Interest rates reflect the cost of borrowing money.
For example, consumers or businesses seeking bank loans will incur interest charges as per the rates set.
The ECB’s monetary policy aims to regulate liquidity demand to manage economic growth and inflation.

With the recent cut, borrowers like those with variable-rate mortgages stand to gain.
The Euribor rate, heavily tied to ECB’s monetary policy, drops as the ECB lowers its rates, which translates to lower loan costs for borrowers.

For instance, an average mortgage between €100,000 and €200,000 over 20 years might see monthly payments decrease by approximately €13.50 to €27 due to this rate cut.

Impact on Consumers

Even consumers without mortgages feel a positive impact from the reduced rates, as borrowing costs for personal loans decrease.
This relief comes at a crucial time when household budgets are strained by high inflation.

Impact on the State

Lower rates generally lead to reduced bond yields, lowering the government’s borrowing costs.
For instance, the Parliamentary Budget Office estimates potential savings of €3 billion this year if ECB rates decrease by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, with future savings projected to rise further.

Impact on Businesses

For businesses, reduced ECB rates facilitate easier access to funding, encouraging investment and growth without the heavy burden of high-interest repayments.

Who Loses from the ECB Rate Cut?

However, not everyone benefits.
Banks may experience a shrinking net interest margin due to lower rates, which could impact profits in the short run.
Simultaneously, savers will find diminished returns on deposits as borrowing becomes less expensive.

In summary, while many stakeholders may find opportunities with reduced ECB rates, challenges remain, particularly for banks and savers.
The overall economic landscape is in flux as these changes unfold.