In the cryptocurrency landscape, the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) may not elicit the expected market reaction, JPMorgan says.
As Bitcoin continues to break out of one resistance after another, fueling excitement around the potential approval of an ETF in January, analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted in a note that the current situation features overbought levels similar to those seen in the bull market of 2021.
Panigirtzoglou laid out a cautious outlook for crypto markets in 2024, suggesting the possibility of a “buy-the-rumor/sell-the-fact” effect once the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves the Spot Bitcoin ETF.
The bullish thesis assumes that a Bitcoin ETF can attract new capital into the crypto market, especially from institutional investors who have been interested or at least curious, but have been waiting for a regulated product.
However, JPMorgan is not convinced by this prospect.
“Instead of new capital entering the crypto industry to be invested in newly approved ETFs, we see, as a more likely scenario, the movement of existing capital from existing Bitcoin products, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Bitcoin futures ETFs and mining stocks of Bitcoin, towards Bitcoin ETFs,” said Panigirtzoglou.
He described this shift as relative value trading, as several Bitcoin products mentioned above trade at a reduced premium or discount compared to the past.
JPMorgan also stressed that it disagreed with the notion that ETF approval would be a win for the crypto industry and a setback for the SEC, which has rejected Bitcoin ETF proposals repeatedly over the past decade and until recently.
a while back showed little interest in bringing one to market.
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