Political Polls: Renzi and Salvini’s Downfall, Santoro’s Surge, Meloni and M5s Approval

Latest Political Survey by Swg

Decrease in Support for Forza Italia and Noi Moderati

According to the latest political survey by Swg, the alliance between Forza Italia and Noi Moderati, co-founded by Giovanni Toti, seems to be losing ground.
The current circumstances, following the corruption investigation involving Toti, have created a challenging scenario for the center-right parties.
The survey indicates that Forza Italia is now further from its target of reaching double-digit support in the upcoming European elections in June.

Shifts in Political Landscape

Similarly, the Lega party, closely associated with Giovanni Toti, is also experiencing a decline in support.
Matteo Salvini, in a swift response, defended Toti, stating that the Liguria President should not resign due to the ongoing investigation.
On the contrary, the survey appears to favor Giorgia Meloni, with Fratelli d’Italia maintaining its share of votes from the 2022 general elections, solidifying its position as the leading party in the country.

Impact of Key Candidates

The survey suggests that Giorgia Meloni’s decision to run in the European elections may have a more positive impact than Matteo Salvini’s choice of Roberto Vannacci.
The data indicates that Vannacci’s candidacy has not significantly boosted the party’s electoral performance so far, contrasting with Meloni’s success in consolidating her party’s voter base.

Party Performance Overview

The survey reflects a slight decline for the Democratic Party, although it remains above the significant threshold of 20%.
Conversely, the Five Star Movement has shown a marginal improvement, maintaining a stable support level between 15% and 16%, a promising result for the party led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

Parties Approaching the Electoral Threshold

Among the parties aiming to exceed the 4% electoral threshold in the European elections, setbacks for Stati Uniti d’Europa might serve as a warning for Matteo Renzi.
The survey also shows a decrease in support for Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra and Azione, although both lists are projected to elect their representatives to the European Parliament based on current polling figures.

Upward Trends and Potential Surprises

Recent polls indicate that Pace Terra Dignità, the pacifist list led by Michele Santoro, and Liberty are making progress.
However, both groups seem to face a significant challenge in reaching the electoral threshold.
Nonetheless, electoral outcomes often bring unexpected turns, leaving room for surprises in the upcoming elections.