Who Will Win the Emilia-Romagna Elections 2024? Insights from Recent Polls

Regional Elections Emilia-Romagna 2024: Poll Updates

The polls for the Emilia-Romagna regional elections will take place on November 17 and 18, aiming to elect a successor to Stefano Bonaccini, the former president from the Democratic Party (PD) who resigned after being elected as a Member of the European Parliament in the recent elections.

Currently, three candidates are vying for the presidency: Michele De Pascale representing the center-right, Elena Ugolini also from the center-right, and Federico Serra representing the left.

Historically, Emilia-Romagna has been viewed as a stronghold for the left.
However, the most recent regional elections saw the center-right instilling fear in the center-left, even though Bonaccini ultimately secured a decisive win.

In 2020, the PD was in coalition with the 5-Star Movement during a tumultuous period soon to be disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The victory in Emilia-Romagna was crucial in thwarting Matteo Salvini’s ambitions to leverage regional elections to challenge the government.

Shift in Political Landscape

The political landscape has dramatically shifted since then, with the center-right now in power.
The League has taken a backseat to Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, who hopes to capture the prestigious Emilia-Romagna seat.
A win here would solidify her position as the premier.

Current Poll Insights

Recent polls conducted ahead of the Emilia-Romagna 2024 elections provide an insight into public sentiment.
The latest survey, conducted on September 6 by Quorum for the local PD, shows De Pascale leading with a significant margin:

• Michele De Pascale – 56.8%
• Elena Ugolini – 43.2%
• Undecided + Abstained – 48.8%

Regarding voting intentions for political parties, the following figures were reported:

• Partito Democratico – 35.1%
• Fratelli d’Italia – 29.3%
• Lega – 6.8%
• Movimento 5 Stelle – 6.5%
• Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra – 6.0%
• Forza Italia/Noi Moderati – 6.0%
• Azione – 3.2%
• +Europa – 1.9%
• Italia Viva – 1.6%
• Other parties – 3.6%
• Undecided + Abstained – 38.7%

Another poll from earlier by Noto—commissioned by Elena Ugolini’s committee and reported by Resto del Carlino—shows the center-left leading, though the gap remains precarious for De Pascale.

Future Scenarios

A survey conducted by Nomisma in late June revealed a different context with four candidates, showing:

• Center-left – 47.5%
• Center-right – 34.1%
• Other candidate – 10.7%
• Movimento 5 Stelle – 7.7%

With a three-candidate scenario, the center-left including the 5-Star Movement might yield different results:

• Center-left + M5s – 47.1%
• Center-right – 32.8%
• Other candidate – 20.8%

As per the intentions of voting towards parties in these elections:

• PD – 24.2%
• FdI – 14.8%
• M5s – 5.4%
• Green Party – 5.3%
• Lega – 4.5%
• Forza Italia – 4.4%
• Azione – 2.7%
• Undecided – 18%

While most polls favor Michele De Pascale for victory in the upcoming elections, a high percentage of undecided voters could pose a significant challenge for the current mayor of Ravenna.