The markets begin an eventful week and are focused on at least 5 key themes today.
From the upcoming ECB meeting to China-US relations to the movements of raw materials such as oil and gold in the tense geopolitical context with the two ongoing wars, investors are carefully monitoring every updated macro data and the evolution of international dynamics.
The market week started on a rather subdued note in Asia, with Chinese stocks on track to end the session in the red.
The Nikkei and Hang Seng gain.
On Friday, US data showed that job growth beat expectations in March and wages rose at a steady pace, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid footing.
This trend has cast new doubts on the imminent start of Fed rate cuts.
In this context, the market week opens today with 5 themes under the spotlight.
read also These 4 events are about to shake the markets 1.
ECB meeting coming up On Thursday 11 April the ECB meets for the spring meeting which will probably not yet inaugurate the season of rate cuts.
As the first decline in the cost of borrowing looks increasingly likely in June, attention is turning to the question of whether this will be consecutive cuts or a more cautious approach.
Although President Christine Lagarde downplays any talk of such a step after Thursday's meeting, the discussion is already underway.
The concern in the Eurozone is twofold: slow growth in the region (which could be depressed further by a prolonged restrictive monetary policy) and inflation falling but not at a sustained pace (with fears that geopolitics could once again inflame the raw material).
2.
Fed eTreasury in focus The surprisingly strong U.S.
economy has pushed Treasury yields to their highest since late November as investors curb bets on rate cuts.
This has traders eyeing Wednesday's consumer price index report as the next key event that will determine the future path of yields.
Many see the 10-year rate at 4.5% as the next major threshold.
3.
Oil takes a breather Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday, with Brent below $90, as tensions in the Middle East eased after Israel withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza and has pledged new talks on a potential ceasefire.
Specifically, Israel and Hamas sent diplomatic teams to Egypt for new talks on a potential ceasefire, easing hostilities that sent oil prices up more than 4% last week on concerns over disruption supplies.
However, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that Israel is ready to handle any scenario that may arise with Iran, after Tehran threatened to retaliate for the killing of Iranian generals on April 1.
Also noteworthy is that on Saturday a fire hit an offshore platform operated by the Mexican national oil company Pemex.
This comes after Pemex asked its trading unit to write off up to 436,000 barrels per day of crude exports in April.
4.
Gold shines brighter The price of gold saw a sudden surge to around $30 and reached a new all-time high of $2,354 after Chinese markets opened, as traders reacted positively to the surge in prices.
gold purchases by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).
Strong buying by central banks, safe-haven inflows amid elevated geopolitical risks and demand from momentum-following funds have fueled bullion's 12% gain so far this year.
5.
US-China meetings and tensions US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is pursuing a complex policy of rapprochement towards China, working to strengthen ties and at the same time making some harsh observations on Beijing's economic policies.
read also Japan's return, China's stalemate: Comparing the two economies Yellen's trip comes as China is also in the spotlight for its growing support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, which has drawn warnings from of the United States.
With the Russian Foreign Minister's visit to China this week, tensions are unlikely to ease.
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