Russia’s Oil Sales: Projected Earnings for 2024

Russian Oil Exports Reach Three-Month Highs

Recent data from Bloomberg has revealed that Russian crude oil shipments have surged to their highest levels in three months, driven by seasonal maintenance at local refineries, resulting in more oil becoming available for export.

During the week ending October 6, average shipments over the previous four weeks rose by approximately 60,000 barrels per day, reaching levels not seen since early July.
This increase is significant as it offers insight into Moscow’s revenue, essential for funding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

How Much Oil is Russia Selling and How Much is it Earning?

The uptick in oil flows occurred despite a decline in shipments from Baltic and Asian ports over the same period.
Last month, Russia’s oil production fell below the OPEC+ targets, indicating challenges in meeting established benchmarks.

In terms of revenue, Russia’s gross oil export value dropped to $1.54 billion during the week ending October 6, down from $1.68 billion the week before, highlighting the financial pressures faced.

Nevertheless, an increase in the average price of Russian crude, supported by rising global benchmarks tied to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, partially mitigated the impact of decreasing weekly shipments.

Where is Russian Oil Going?

In the focused week, around 1.31 million barrels per day were loaded onto tankers destined for China, with maritime imports from Russia increasing by approximately 800,000 barrels per day via pipeline or directly.

Meanwhile, shipments to India averaged about 1.49 million barrels per day, slightly down from 1.53 million barrels per day in late September.
It’s expected that both Chinese and Indian numbers will rise, as ship destinations become clearer.

Projected Oil Earnings for Russia in 2024

About a month ago, the Russian Ministry of Economy raised its 2024 projections for oil and gas sales by an estimated $17.4 billion, amounting to a revised total of $239.7 billion.
Improved price outlooks contributed to this optimistic estimation.

The report suggested Russian crude oil exports could increase to 239.9 million tons (4.8 million barrels per day) this year, up from 238.3 million tons in 2023.
Additionally, the average export price of oil is forecasted to rise to $70 per barrel, surpassing the Western-imposed cap of $60.

Despite challenges, including OPEC’s production policies aimed at stabilizing the volatile oil market, Russia aims to continue boosting its oil exports while maintaining competitive pricing, ensuring substantial revenue streams for Moscow amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.