From Powell's gospel: the invisible recession

The yield curve, like the parables of the gospel, lives on a general interpretation but with personal implications.
In March 2022 the Fed put the 10y/2y curve in the attic to focus mainly on the Near Term Forward Spread (NTFS) which at the time of the article's publication was rising while the 10y/2y curve was falling.
Well, today the NTFS values are aligned negative and lower than those of the 10y/2y curve, while the probability of recession according to the Fed model is above 50%, a threshold which, once reached, then determined an imminent recession.
Probably the euphoria of a Fed pivot for June/July could bring the S&P 500 above 5,200 points but, in the following sessions with a cool and clear mind, the possibility of a recession could emerge, with a probable drawdown in 2024 for the American stock exchange (purchasing opportunity?).
If, however, inflation were to rear its head again in the coming months, perhaps due to exogenous geopolitical factors, then the inversion of the curve could persist and sink further down with remote risks of stagflation as in the 70s/80s.
The recession, if there is one, will materialize when all three curves become positive again.
The "buy recession" should be given by the return of the 10y/3m to 3.5%, as happened in the past.
What event could bring matters to a head? We have entered the end of the era of zero interest rates, no more unconventional fiscal and monetary expansionary financial methadone, the markets will have to go through a shock to find a new equilibrium, an event could start from the Asian markets and then extend globally.
Japan or China could be the protagonists.
read also Fineco Shares, something doesn't add up.
What can hold the stock back?