Iran and Russia are ever closer in a context of war and geopolitical upheavals that keeps the world in suspense.
Tehran has sent hundreds of its powerful ballistic missiles to President Vladimir Putin's government in Russia, fostering military cooperation between the two U.S.
adversaries, Reuters reported this week, citing a number of unnamed senior Iranian military sources.
The arms transfer is intended to strengthen Putin's position in Ukraine and follows already documented arms cooperation between Tehran and Moscow from 2022, in particular with the transfer of Iranian-made Shahed drones that Russian forces have deployed to good effect fatalities in Ukraine.
The link between the two powers is also an alarming signal for the global geopolitical scenario, increasingly divided between the USA and Europe on the one hand and Russia, Iran and China on the other.
Iran-Russia: A dangerous alliance in arms Reuters reported that Iran delivered at least 400 of its Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in January this year, and that figure is expected to increase.
“It has always been a question of when, not if, Iran would transfer ballistic missiles to Russia,” Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told CNBC.
“Iranian material support, such as drones, pushed Putin to fight in Ukraine much longer than expected.
Ballistic missiles will keep it in that fight longer now,” he added.
As of 2022, US Central Command estimated that Iran had over 3,000 ballistic missiles in its arsenal.
In recent years the Islamic Republic has developed advancements and upgrades to its class of Fateh missiles improving aspects such as accuracy, range, lethality, maneuverability and survivability, analysts say.
“Iran produces the missiles domestically with very little input from foreign sources and can produce them in large quantities over a long period of time,” analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group wrote in a research note.
What does Iran get in return? Already heavily sanctioned by the United States and the EU, the arms trade with Russia is a valuable source of revenue for the Islamic Republic.
FDD's Ben Taleblu describes “reports of cash and gold transfers, Western conventional weapons transfers, fighter jet deals, and even assistance with Iran's space program from Russia.
For a risk-tolerant Islamic Republic, the partnership with Russia continues to bear fruit.” Analysts point out that several rounds of Western sanctions against Iran, which have helped cripple its economy, have not been enough to dissuade it from continuing to sell Russia the lethal weapons it uses in Ukraine.
It is also in the process of acquiring new military hardware.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration appears reluctant to further escalate tensions in the Middle East.
While it can sanction Iran's weapons programs, it cannot actually intercept the shipment of missiles to Russia along its supply route; the United Nations arms embargo that prevented Iran from selling its missiles expired in 2023.
The increased supply of weapons to Russia, while Ukraine's allies appear to be stalling, illustrates what many observers they describe as shifting the tide of war in Moscow's favor.
With an increase in instability alarm for the world.
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