Global economy, the 10 trends of 2024

2024 promises to be a crucial year for the global economy, with 10 trends to monitor carefully.
The world is facing epochal challenges and is changing at an astonishing speed, whether it is the increase in armed conflicts, the redrawing of the global map of energy resources or rapid advances in artificial intelligence.
The food for thought from Tom Standage, journalist for The Economist, suggests that next year will be even more fraught with risks.
From the situation in the Middle East to the adoption of electric vehicles and geopolitical balances, nothing is as it was two years ago.
The global economy must therefore prepare for a mix of unpredictable events – at least 10 – that can shock the world and make it even more vulnerable.
read also Markets, 2 reasons to fear turbulence in 2024 1.
The world goes to vote Many nations of the world will go to vote to renew the highest political offices and governments.
This means that a number of voters never seen before will go to the polls and reveal the state of health of democracy.
More than 70 elections will be held in 2024 in countries home to around 4.2 billion people, or more than half the world's population for the first time.
From the USA to Taiwan to Russia and India, some of the most influential economic and political powers will face elections that could change the world balance.
2.
US elections The elections in the United States are already the most anticipated.
The voters and the courts will give their verdict on Donald Trump, who has a one in three chance of regaining the presidency.
The result promises to be crucial, with a handful of undecided states that could decide the fate of the world's greatest power.
The consequences of the vote will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine.
Indeed, with the prediction of electoral fraud in Russia, Vladimir Putin's fate should depend more on American voters than on Russian ones.
3.
Will Europe save Ukraine? According to Tom Standage, this is a crucial dilemma for 2024.
Europe must step up and provide Ukraine with the necessary military and economic support to win the long battle against Russia and in the meantime chart a path towards eventual membership of the 'Eu.
This is the right thing to do, especially given the risk of Trump regaining power and withdrawing support, according to the journalist.
4.
Conflict in the Middle East The Hamas attack against Israel and Israel's retaliation against Gaza have shocked the region and removed the idea that the world could continue to ignore the plight of the Palestinians.
Will it become a larger regional conflict or will it offer a new chance for peace? Certainly, the war will make the world even more complex and threatening, with the protagonists on the international scene – the USA.
China, Europe – pressured by the need to mediate, intervene and adapt to increasingly precarious geopolitical balances.
5.
Global instability America's plan to target Asia and single-mindedly focus on its rivalry with rising China has been derailed by war in Ukraine and now Gaza.
Russia is also distracted by the conflict and losing influence.
The world is in the grip of general instability.
The journalist underlines that conflicts that seemed frozen are thawing and local cold wars are heating up all over the world.
Instability is growing in the Sahel.
The world is preparing for more conflict now that America's "moment of unipolar power" is over.
read also World economy, the worst is feared in 2024.
Here's why 6.
A second cold war is underway With the slowdown in Chinese growth, the increase in tensions over Taiwan and the USA which continues to limit Chinese access to technologies advanced, the rhetoric of the “new cold war” has worsened.
In this scenario of rivalry between the two blocs, Western and Eastern, Western companies seeking to reduce the dependence of their supply chains on China will find this much easier said than done.
In the meantime, both sides will court the "medium powers" of the South of the world, also for their green resources.
7.
The new energy geography The transition towards clean energy is creating new green superpowers and redrawing the map of energy resources.
Lithium, copper and nickel matter much more, while oil and gas, and the regions that dominate their supply, are becoming less strategic.
Competition for green commodities is reshaping geopolitics and trade, creating unexpected winners and losers.
Meanwhile, there is an ongoing green distrust on the part of voters who consider climate-friendly policies as a conspiracy of the elites against the populations.
read also In the lithium sector, this country can shine (it's not China) 8.
Economic uncertainty Western economies have done better than expected in 2023, but they are not out of the woods yet, and interest rates that remain "higher, more for a long time” will have an impact on both companies and consumers, even if recessions are avoided.
Analysts are also keeping an eye on banks and their exposure to commercial properties, which could turn into a financial earthquake.
Meanwhile, China is heading towards deflation, synonymous with weakness in demand and the economy in general.
9.
Where Artificial Intelligence can go Companies are now adopting AI, while regulatory bodies try to dictate rules and technicians continue to improve its use.
2024, essentially, will be the year of Artificial Intelligence.
Debate will intensify over the best regulatory approach and whether “existential risk” arguments are realistic.
Unexpected uses and abuses will continue to emerge, while concerns abound about the effects of AI on jobs and the potential for election interference.
Its biggest real impact? Faster coding, according to Tom Standage.
10.
The challenge of a more united world The Economist journalist's last observation is hopeful.
Perhaps ideological differences will be put aside as the world enjoys the Paris Olympics, astronauts (maybe) hang out on the Moon and the men's t20 cricket World Cup is played.
However, those hoping for some global unity are equally likely to be disappointed.