China-Taiwan Conflict: Timeline and Inevitable Reasons Behind the Tensions

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Will There Be War Between China and Taiwan?

The question of when a potential conflict between China and Taiwan may occur is steeped in speculation.
However, the underlying factors contributing to the inevitability of military action are more apparent.
Xi Jinping has historically promised the reunification of Taipei with mainland China, and as a leader of such authority, it is unlikely he will disregard a commitment of such immense significance.

Recent developments from the Far East have only intensified concerns.
Following military exercises, reports indicate that China has nearly surrounded the rebellious island.
“Combat aircraft, bombers, and other advanced planes flew over the Taiwan Strait,” stated Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.
Concurrently, naval forces conducted simultaneous maneuvers, heightening tensions.

In response, Taiwan has rallied its armed forces.
Taiwanese President William Lai urgently convened the Security Council to assess the situation, leading to heightened alert in certain regions.
It’s crucial to also consider global dynamics, particularly concerning Russia and Iran—two of China’s allies.
With Moscow embroiled in the prolonged war in Ukraine and Tehran facing potential conflict in the Holy Land, the prospect of a global conflict looms larger.

The Historical Context of Taiwan’s Situation

The Taiwan issue is an open wound for China, dating back to 1949, following the civil war won by Mao’s communists.
Formosa became a bastion for local nationalists who established Taipei as their capital and were welcomed by the Taiwanese populace.
Since then, both Beijing and Taipei have laid claim to being the ‘true’ China, although internationally, only a handful of countries, including the Vatican, officially recognize Taiwan.

Pursuant to the “One China” policy, Beijing stakes its sovereignty claim over Taiwan on par with that of Hong Kong and Macao.
Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, observers speculated that Xi Jinping might seize the opportunity to reassert control over the rebellious island.

Currently, Taiwan boasts a population of 23 million and a robust economy.
Its military, comprising approximately 130,000 personnel, is regarded as modern and well-equipped.
Taiwan’s defenses include 26 warships, two submarines, 478 fighter jets and bombers, plus 44 missile patrol vessels.

While impressive, Taiwan’s military pales in comparison to China’s, which is numerically the world’s largest.
Nonetheless, the United States has hinted it might not remain passive in the event of an attack on Formosa, potentially triggering a worldwide conflict.

Predictions for Conflict Timing

Xijinping reiterated in 2017 that by 2049, Taiwan will be under Chinese control, a promise reaffirmed recently upon receiving a new party mandate.
Until recently, U.S.
military analysts believed China would attack Taiwan by 2027; however, recent reports suggest the invasion may be recalibrated to as soon as 2024.

Considering Taiwan’s military capabilities and its natural defensive geography, China faces significant challenges in launching an invasion.
Beijing is reportedly strategizing on how to execute an invasion while avoiding missteps akin to those made by Russia in Ukraine’s early phases.

According to multiple reports, an initial Chinese offensive could entail large-scale cyberattacks to create energy blackouts in Taiwan, followed by extensive bombardments utilizing advanced hypersonic missiles capable of penetrating air defenses.
The actual invasion might involve elite forces, specifically a selected unit of 35,000 troops airlifted to the island, a scenario fraught with uncertainties regarding U.S.
response and the potential spark of a global war.

While Emmanuel Macron’s recent assertions suggest that Europe should steer clear of the China-Taiwan crisis, it remains difficult to imagine NATO could remain neutral amid a direct military clash between Chinese and American forces.

The grim consensus appears to be that a war concerning Taiwan is almost certain.
However, with growing military activities from China, few can confidently predict how long this situation can linger without escalating into conflict.

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