Can the EU defend itself in case of war with Russia? Italy must worry

Is the EU capable of defending itself in the event of war with Russia? This is a question that has been circulating in the chancelleries of the Old Continent since Donald Trump, during an election rally, stated that with him as president, the USA would not rush to the aid of a NATO member country that is in arrears with payments.
Trump's reference is to the commitment of the countries of the Atlantic Alliance to allocate 2% of their GDP to military spending; after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Italy renewed its commitment to reach this threshold, but the increase for the Bel Paese will be gradual and, as things stand, we would be on the list of defaulters according to the tycoon's criterion.
In November's presidential elections, Donald Trump is the big favorite to win, with polls showing him as the winner against Joe Biden whose memory problems are now well known to everyone.
A return to the White House of the former president is therefore currently the most likely scenario.
Does this mean that with Trump as president again, the US would not defend the European Union in the event of a Russian attack on a non-compliant NATO member? It is unlikely that the Americans can back out in such a scenario, but recently there has also been talk of how Washington could say goodbye to the Atlantic Alliance in the event of The Donald's return to power.
So we return to the starting question: could Italy and the other countries of the European Union face a war against Russia at this moment? In such a scenario, things would not go very well for our country.
read also Trump threatens to withdraw from NATO.
Will he really do it? War against Russia: the problems of the EU and Italy Among the member countries of the EU and NATO at the moment only five are in compliance with the parameter of 2% of GDP to be allocated to military spending: Greece, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
According to Donald Trump's reasoning, with him as president the United States would not lift a finger if Russia were to wage war on Italy or Germany, with the European Union then having to defend itself.
Overall, the 27 member states spent 240 billion euros on their armies in 2022 – a figure that increased in 2023 as a result of the war in Ukraine – much more than Russia (92 billion) and less than a third compared to the USA (794 billion).
The problem in the EU would not seem to be how much is spent, but how it is spent given that each state would continue to think about its own backyard by allocating less than 20% to joint military projects.
In the EU we are now trying to accelerate the European army, with a first elite battalion called European Union Rapid Deployment Capacity and made up of 5,000 soldiers which will be operational starting from 2025.
A first outline of a European army which, however, does not solves the big underlying problem: who would command these troops? It is no coincidence that Ursula von der Leyen declared that if re-elected at Palazzo Berlaymont she would establish the role of an ad hoc commissioner for the EU armed forces.
In essence, the EU countries can count on France which is a nuclear power and on numerous and well organized armies despite the arsenals emptied to support Ukraine, but they would lack chains of command and common strategic technologies.
If Russia were to send one of its hypersonic missiles – potentially carrying a nuclear warhead – towards Italy in the event of a war, we would not be able to intercept it at the moment.
At the same time, without US support, Europe could also face difficulties on the field given the lack of coordination between the various armies.
The only certain thing is that relations with Moscow will no longer be the same after the invasion of Ukraine and that military tension will continue for years regardless of how the current war ends: Emmanuel Macron would like the EU to common debt to finance military spending, with the diplomatic route to resolve issues with the Kremlin appearing to be the only option not considered by Brussels.